Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8db66b45c4494cb6dc93ba021e00fb24b8bf6a4dd7bd15c39809d6fc020d6d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,842
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,513
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,842 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 339.52$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.02 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 254$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.72 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 72c | 214.26$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.26 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 74c | 176.72$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.77 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 19c | 161.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 79c | 149.96$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.47 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 80c | 131.16$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 21c | 129.34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.57 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 30c | 126.47$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.02 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 39c | 120.84$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.15 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 31c | 116.87$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.64 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 69c | 104.35$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 61c | 96.84$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.31 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 24c | 93.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.25 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 72c | 73.35$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc848…537bbacked Yes | 70c | 71.85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…53adbacked Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 25c | 60.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 25c | 60.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 58.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 67c | 54.54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 41c | 53.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 20c | 52.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.97 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 35c | 51.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.94 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 38c | 50.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 40c | 49.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed Yes | 73c | 45.69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 97 | 69.1%67 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 70c | 43.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 48c | 41.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 39.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…b6ddbacked Yes | 46c | 32.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 66c | 21.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 78c | 21.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 66c | 21.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3e…3865backed Yes | 65c | 20.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 76c | 17.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 74c | 14.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 69c | 14.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.