Us Midterms · resolved market
Will George Moraitis be the FL-25 Republican nominee?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe482a4553d9b1c6f251021ecee41dfc97e6da95f851e39e22f2a6019e045e952
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,957
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,389
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,957 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 5c | 4,892$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +215.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf107…b9babacked Yes | 11c | 792.3$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.33 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…d10fbacked Yes | 28c | 733.52$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 11c | 623.2$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.38 | 228 | 48.7%111 W · 117 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed Yes | 18c | 476.37$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.64 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 31cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 8c | 374$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 17c | 347.05$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.92 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…eee8backed Yes | 9c | 300$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…337bbacked Yes | 8c | 293.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 15c | 223.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 106 | 22.6%24 W · 82 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 25c | 210$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 30c | 148$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…0439backed Yes | 26c | 139$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 8c | 130.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 12c | 116.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 10c | 114.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08ef…e466backed Yes | 10c | 114.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 113$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 110.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 449 | 35.2%158 W · 291 L | -37.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 57c | 105$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.94 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…61b4backed Yes | 26c | 98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 75c | 73.74$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 25c | 59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…5a08backed Yes | 23c | 58.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 43.87$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed Yes | 26c | 41.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 52c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4f…e321backed No | 72c | 23.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will George Moraitis be the FL-25 Republican nominee?this page
- Will Dan Franzese be the FL-25 Republican nominee?No won
- Will Scott Singer be the FL-25 Republican nominee?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.