Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Darline Graham Nordone place second in first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c4f79536d80ab68a22a4e05048543fb6bfe47d43421781bc7a0d3b20b0ccba1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,429
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,787
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,429 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6640…2202backed Yes | 19c | 2,085$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.91 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,313$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.52 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…eee8backed Yes | 31c | 800$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 747.51$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.55 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc4…85a2backed Yes | 22c | 566.3$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde88…144cbacked Yes | 13c | 413.16$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce3…f779backed Yes | 10c | 401.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 34c | 305$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.7 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 12c | 293.18$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 136 | 25.7%35 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 6c | 225$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 74c | 199$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.23 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf379…c1cabacked Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed Yes | 9c | 135.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 25c | 125$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked No | 68c | 110$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 92.5$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 16c | 88.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 86$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 28c | 83.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 77$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 78c | 76$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 21c | 70.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 70c | 68.59$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 36c | 64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 66c | 52.16$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 77c | 47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0beb…4503backed Yes | 31c | 38.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 33c | 36.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64d8…daeabacked Yes | 30c | 33.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ff…1d98backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Darline Graham Nordone place second in first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?this page
- Will Duke Buckner place second in first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?No won
- Will Henry McMaster place second in first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?No won
- Will Mark Lynch place second in first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?No won
- Will Ralph Norman place second in first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?Yes won
- Will Russell Fry place second in first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.