Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Russell Fry place second in first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b8ba0386c61133bcd31070254dbb950a923cbddb934b140065354704c3b565e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,858
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,858 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 48c | 5,667$2,716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,715.55 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7523…4c4cbacked No | 50c | 3,441$1,721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,720.51 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 69cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 64c | 1,850$1,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.51 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 20c | 1,056$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.26 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 13c | 886.19$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.99 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 30c | 826.93$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.18 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77fb…266cbacked No | 77c | 665.37$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -74%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 55c | 438.24$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.62 | 136 | 25.7%35 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 420.73$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.84 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 8c | 380.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 273.46$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.92 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 22c | 270$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.32 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 240$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.86 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb9…2b63backed Yes | 61c | 227.64$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.47 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 32c | 224.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.3 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 191$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.59 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 63c | 156.73$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.55 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x054d…97c5backed Yes | 29c | 156.01$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa189…a2d5backed Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcac8…f4eabacked Yes | 62c | 143.67$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 78c | 125$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 54c | 124.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.44 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 38c | 115.15$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 90 | 10%9 W · 81 L | -20.0wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb146…c098backed Yes | 46c | 102.89$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.05 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36dd…bfccbacked Yes | 49c | 89.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.47 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…b3b6backed Yes | 47c | 84.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 27c | 83.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 78$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 23c | 76.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 56c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 23c | 69.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 45c | 68.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb726…ceb4backed Yes | 29c | 67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 77c | 63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79fe…6286backed Yes | 23c | 62.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 31c | 58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 72c | 53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 73c | 47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 67c | 45.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 50c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 28c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…1456backed No | 72c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2a…7682backed Yes | 50c | 40.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 59c | 40.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…0288backed No | 50c | 39.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +7.6wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 27c | 39.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 49c | 37.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 77c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba6c…618bbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -57%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ba…7aaebacked No | 72c | 26.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 68c | 23.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…e632backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 72c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…227bbacked No | 67c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 64c | 17.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 95 | 78.9%75 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russell Fry place second in first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?this page
- Will Darline Graham Nordone place second in first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?No won
- Will Duke Buckner place second in first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?No won
- Will Henry McMaster place second in first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?No won
- Will Mark Lynch place second in first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?No won
- Will Ralph Norman place second in first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.