World Politics · resolved market
Will the number of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election be between 20,000-30,000?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa19bd9e0f03937b71d8c7db2d041234947435a55f3cd6a8bc3767437266dfcf8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,654
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,652
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,654 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed Yes | 56c | 1,431$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.23 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0414…be21backed Yes | 33c | 1,098$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.49 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 64c | 899.99$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.99 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b3…2b3abacked No | 27c | 582.48$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.57 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 60c | 531.42$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.06 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 45c | 518.78$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.15 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa189…a2d5backed Yes | 64c | 384$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.72 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 31c | 301.51$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.91 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 27c | 235.76$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.66 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 54c | 210$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.18 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 108 | 44.4%48 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 44c | 173$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.25 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 74c | 169.36$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.72 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -5.1wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 49c | 165.39$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.79 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 55c | 160$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 132 | 68.9%91 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…398dbacked Yes | 32c | 155$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…eee8backed No | 25c | 125$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.75 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed No | 31c | 120$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 76c | 108.97$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.16 | 142 | 25.4%36 W · 106 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 75c | 104$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 30c | 103$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.1 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…cb8dbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 25c | 96.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.97 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 45c | 90$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes | 76c | 90$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3872…bb1dbacked Yes | 55c | 87.34$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked Yes | 69c | 80$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8916…db60backed No | 58c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 49c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 53c | 78.91$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.15 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x727e…8b9dbacked No | 31c | 75.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.43 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 45c | 71$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 41c | 68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.08 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2203…66acbacked Yes | 76c | 63.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x815a…af37backed Yes | 55c | 59.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 31c | 58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14af…b610backed No | 33c | 55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31d4…e162backed No | 33c | 55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 65c | 53.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 38c | 52.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 46c | 51.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 39c | 50.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…3eebbacked Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 52c | 48.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 24c | 48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.68 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2f…5b43backed No | 24c | 47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 75c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f74…372ebacked No | 25c | 41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 46c | 39.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e3…9bfbbacked Yes | 68c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 75c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 50c | 31.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3502…4499backed Yes | 68c | 31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad2d…6d8dbacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9694…be2abacked Yes | 77c | 27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2760…b1b9backed Yes | 68c | 24.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 72c | 23.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5568…9ea3backed Yes | 54c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa979…a4dbbacked Yes | 76c | 22.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffb1…f54ebacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed96…d6edbacked Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ff…1d98backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e85…9ab6backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b629backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c57…1cefbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 77c | 17.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the number of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election be between 20,000-30,000?this page
- Will the number of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election be between 10,000-20,000?No won
- Will the number of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election be between 30,000-40,000?Yes won
- Will the number of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election be between 40,000-50,000?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.