World Politics · resolved market
Will the number of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election be between 30,000-40,000?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x745f1551d40427f9a7d9e8605995646773efcf01a236e3ed5565468a60bbcab3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,749
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,749 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 38c | 1,520$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$948.83 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3958…830bbacked Yes | 15c | 948.85$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +315.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…eee8backed Yes | 16c | 798.83$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.32 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b3…2b3abacked Yes | 23c | 764.77$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 62c | 600$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 69c | 579.94$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.3 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 540.31$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.56 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 73c | 493$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.11 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…398dbacked No | 27c | 450$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.5 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 39c | 437.99$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.17 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0414…be21backed No | 61c | 309.04$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.65 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 61c | 300$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdd…31acbacked No | 62c | 300$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked Yes | 13c | 285.32$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.64 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 47c | 281.13$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.95 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 73c | 235.76$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.81 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 61c | 202.51$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.53 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae8…5a42backed Yes | 68c | 199.99$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed Yes | 35c | 160.03$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.22 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 30c | 150.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.36 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…2ad3backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.86 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +130.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 61c | 133.12$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.45 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…b9f9backed No | 76c | 125.82$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.87 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…bce0backed Yes | 22c | 124.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.3 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 31c | 121$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…c123backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 56c | 105.27$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.21 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed Yes | 39c | 105$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.05 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 90.88$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.79 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 65c | 90$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.69 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes | 12c | 90$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 89.02$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.17 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x039b…9b6cbacked No | 62c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 72c | 79.32$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.19 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 61c | 78.87$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3872…bb1dbacked No | 61c | 78.75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 65c | 70$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 64c | 70$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Yes | 41c | 66$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.21 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed Yes | 37c | 64.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.38 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x815a…af37backed No | 61c | 63.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 77c | 63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…cb8dbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…0fe6backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34db…2e01backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3625…2a57backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2a…b7b5backed No | 26c | 46.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Yes | 39c | 43.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.69 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c62…ca89backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 28c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x929a…5ab4backed Yes | 72c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 79c | 37.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 64c | 33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…d0e5backed No | 74c | 32.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 32c | 32.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 28.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 78c | 28.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d4…a6d1backed No | 54c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 64c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -5.1wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 61c | 22.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 22.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…7004backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77fe…c253backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 152 | 37.5%57 W · 95 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x257b…d288backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5c…767bbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 76c | 18.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 65c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the number of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election be between 30,000-40,000?this page
- Will the number of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election be between 10,000-20,000?No won
- Will the number of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election be between 20,000-30,000?No won
- Will the number of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election be between 40,000-50,000?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.