World Politics · resolved market
Will the number of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election be between 10,000-20,000?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x368cfaf6f48505a8e1b53f0d845dcf9a8dbc8dfa172f5771b687564318ca8fcf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,258
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,258 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0414…be21backed Yes | 3c | 1,694$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.21 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,059$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.29 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb83d…6175backed Yes | 8c | 1,054$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3958…830bbacked Yes | 4c | 957.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +315.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa806…83cabacked Yes | 20c | 797.3$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 681.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 167 | 6.6%11 W · 156 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 512.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdd…31acbacked Yes | 9c | 506.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…e4e0backed No | 77c | 488.02$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 78cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 15c | 357$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.18 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 6c | 309.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 9c | 184$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 23c | 182.56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…0439backed Yes | 13c | 146$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…2cd1backed Yes | 13c | 120$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…c8a3backed Yes | 13c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed Yes | 25c | 45.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 71c | 45.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.35per pick | 53cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…5af6backed No | 67c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the number of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election be between 10,000-20,000?this page
- Will the number of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election be between 20,000-30,000?No won
- Will the number of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election be between 30,000-40,000?Yes won
- Will the number of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election be between 40,000-50,000?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.