IPO · resolved market
Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 2.5T yuan?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79ebbfdbf24864ae608fde27946d71f37c92a5ca7d39b939835b66c8c8d4ae87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,154
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,154 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38d7…8ce0backed No | 33c | 6,118$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x226f…96cdbacked No | 26c | 2,664$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e2…4a79backed Yes | 57c | 2,547$1,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,087.05 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…9e4abacked Yes | 62c | 2,286$1,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 1c | 2,117$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea1…709fbacked Yes | 80c | 2,084$1,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fc…ce0bbacked Yes | 65c | 1,984$1,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.35 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27d4…716ebacked Yes | 68c | 1,816$1,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc54…d4dcbacked No | 52c | 1,737$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa603…1103backed No | 34c | 1,715$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 32c | 1,495$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.52 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -85%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 68c | 1,400$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 1,200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 38c | 1,128$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.04 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6630…2f4ebacked Yes | 73c | 1,114$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.09 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a31…7134backed Yes | 75c | 830.12$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0c…6166backed No | 33c | 807.93$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Yes | 67c | 800$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdd…e70ebacked Yes | 66c | 757$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c0…91afbacked Yes | 67c | 749.14$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b78…4b4bbacked Yes | 66c | 642.87$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…8793backed Yes | 66c | 600$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 2c | 563.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 67c | 475$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.75 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 66c | 403.4$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.4 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 31c | 372.45$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.25 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 21c | 342$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.31 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 70c | 338.87$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.11 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…6207backed Yes | 79c | 324.72$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5669…0f13backed No | 41c | 301$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…cbacbacked Yes | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91c6…3d64backed Yes | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +107.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…d3ddbacked No | 34c | 274.31$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed No | 27c | 254.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed No | 30c | 250$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c11…a98dbacked Yes | 68c | 232.71$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed6c…178bbacked No | 44c | 229.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…4664backed No | 30c | 229$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e8f…2bb4backed Yes | 68c | 220$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e6…a59dbacked No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed Yes | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -62%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked Yes | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed Yes | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked Yes | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked No | 34c | 199.98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7362…1e3abacked No | 40c | 197.91$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf9…6d7dbacked Yes | 70c | 190$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 52c | 180$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4796…d6cabacked No | 34c | 176.62$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed No | 25c | 166.63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 67c | 164$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55a3…e9d1backed Yes | 67c | 157.38$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fed…0d36backed Yes | 58c | 155.17$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c03…646fbacked Yes | 66c | 148.83$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 30c | 139$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d7e…7278backed Yes | 74c | 134.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 31c | 127.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…6cc3backed Yes | 78c | 127.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 68c | 122.79$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfac2…f35fbacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…052abacked Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…dcf7backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -89.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd2…c545backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…4f5bbacked No | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…61b4backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe30…87cabacked Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…2f31backed No | 31c | 83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb42b…afe0backed Yes | 77c | 81.61$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 30c | 79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 49c | 78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ead…f333backed No | 66c | 68.18$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…91e9backed Yes | 67c | 67.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 49c | 64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x031a…fdf7backed Yes | 74c | 63.06$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed No | 50c | 61.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c4…8346backed Yes | 74c | 60.69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb1…f54ebacked No | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x362d…f6d2backed Yes | 74c | 59.91$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 32c | 52.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 63 | 27%17 W · 46 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb713…fb48backed No | 29c | 51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5883…a58bbacked No | 31c | 47.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaae5…6c45backed No | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x034a…0469backed No | 28c | 44.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 48c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb79d…e695backed Yes | 47c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 59cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ba…ea73backed No | 36c | 41.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4e…f93abacked No | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02d5…2fecbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed Yes | 59c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…ef6bbacked Yes | 72c | 34.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…c5bebacked No | 39c | 32.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…f247backed Yes | 45c | 32.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a8…7493backed No | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfec4…cfc8backed No | 69c | 20.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x274c…61dfbacked Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb5…69d3backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 2.5T yuan?this page
- Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 1.5T yuan?Yes won
- Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 1T yuan?Yes won
- Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 2T yuan?Yes won
- Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 3.5T yuan?No won
- Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 3T yuan?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.