IPO · resolved market
Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 3T yuan?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe97dd84ba462a1e280b5c7c9ac2b03a0ac36fc4a6c770914ecfca7121851628d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,757
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,274
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,757 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa603…1103backed No | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,999.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8db…f92cbacked Yes | 51c | 5,261$2,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,569.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…9e4abacked Yes | 44c | 5,177$2,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,920.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e2…4a79backed No | 61c | 3,419$2,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,095.47 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…e7d1backed Yes | 37c | 1,993$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +172.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 7c | 1,685$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.61 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d7…8ce0backed No | 63c | 1,577$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 50c | 1,480$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.71 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -85%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 63c | 1,400$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878.1 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 44c | 1,132$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.67 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 6c | 1,089$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.31 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fc…ce0bbacked No | 49c | 1,007$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.08 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1afe…9fe1backed Yes | 49c | 902.45$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdc…9da2backed Yes | 71c | 632.7$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c0…91afbacked Yes | 47c | 515.73$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89d9…5136backed No | 61c | 512.21$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed No | 6c | 499.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe30…87cabacked Yes | 54c | 400$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4796…d6cabacked No | 58c | 390.84$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b78…4b4bbacked No | 61c | 370.5$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked No | 49c | 334$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.73 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5669…0f13backed No | 57c | 320.64$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…d10fbacked No | 66c | 292.37$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 44c | 283.43$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.25 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18fc…b534backed No | 35c | 261$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b6…eda1backed No | 66c | 250$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 9c | 220.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa806…83cabacked No | 48c | 218.95$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked Yes | 74c | 216$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 5c | 205$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 47c | 203.82$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.74 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 65c | 200.01$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…f247backed No | 51c | 199.02$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.84 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91c6…3d64backed Yes | 38c | 160$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +107.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x604b…8215backed Yes | 42c | 154.37$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed No | 59c | 150.02$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e16…5026backed Yes | 39c | 141.75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.97 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f63…0a71backed Yes | 35c | 138.46$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69d0…3fe7backed No | 59c | 137.28$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda5…ee3abacked No | 30c | 135.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed No | 11c | 123.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…6073backed Yes | 42c | 121.33$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e6…4bd4backed No | 58c | 109.62$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.58 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 51c | 107.09$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…c770backed No | 60c | 105$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +202.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 52c | 103.74$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.93 | 92 | 15.2%14 W · 78 L | -16.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 40c | 103.33$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc355…726fbacked No | 62c | 100.97$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…33c6backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -62%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x034a…0469backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcec…d169backed Yes | 50c | 99.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 66c | 98.7$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.14 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…5506backed Yes | 53c | 95.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb904…3ef8backed Yes | 70c | 92.03$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaae5…6c45backed No | 48c | 90$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 63c | 86.16$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed No | 47c | 84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86d9…d53abacked No | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffb1…f54ebacked Yes | 53c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c87…7165backed Yes | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 61c | 54.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac6a…2ed3backed Yes | 75c | 53.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…ea22backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x529d…6381backed No | 53c | 42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 36c | 36.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c1…6b32backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc591…4a2ebacked No | 62c | 32.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…4ce2backed No | 63c | 31.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 56c | 30.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…c5bebacked No | 60c | 22.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 51c | 21.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb96b…ddefbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe566…9cc5backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…e856backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 3T yuan?this page
- Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 1.5T yuan?Yes won
- Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 1T yuan?Yes won
- Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 2.5T yuan?Yes won
- Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 2T yuan?Yes won
- Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 3.5T yuan?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.