IPO · resolved market
Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 3.5T yuan?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d690e5e4d72cb140df8af4542e2f6f342cbbacfce1da2cc410b72eebd26fba5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,737
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,737 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51de…9e4abacked Yes | 32c | 10,566$3,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,416.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8db…f92cbacked Yes | 33c | 9,611$3,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,159.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1681…b1c7backed No | 65c | 5,888$3,827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,060.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd723…25bfbacked No | 79c | 4,464$3,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$958.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…966bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,443$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d7…8ce0backed No | 76c | 2,630$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fc…ce0bbacked No | 71c | 2,608$1,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.44 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e6…4bd4backed No | 73c | 2,365$1,718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.83 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1b…efb5backed No | 70c | 2,000$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5669…0f13backed No | 70c | 1,472$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed No | 63c | 1,195$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.74 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd9…4fdebacked Yes | 23c | 1,050$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 7c | 1,006$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.68 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 5c | 657.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ab…b4b3backed Yes | 49c | 630.4$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 10c | 609.62$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.19 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e2…4a79backed Yes | 16c | 483.42$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.67 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 464.21$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.78 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…6073backed Yes | 23c | 419.52$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 69c | 415.01$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.95 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 65c | 362.28$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.25 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 23c | 354.04$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.43 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e16…5026backed Yes | 29c | 315.5$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.65 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda5…ee3abacked No | 45c | 313.29$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…1baebacked No | 37c | 304.96$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…bd7fbacked Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a9…6c89backed No | 76c | 297.38$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked No | 66c | 296.25$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.19 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…914ebacked Yes | 24c | 277.29$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…c5bebacked Yes | 22c | 274.26$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa806…83cabacked Yes | 35c | 269.16$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 30c | 265.22$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe30…87cabacked No | 72c | 250$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed6c…178bbacked No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18fc…b534backed No | 59c | 228.99$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…c770backed Yes | 63c | 228.9$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.5 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +202.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e60…67e6backed No | 46c | 212.11$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +116.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 18c | 208.64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 75c | 200$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7165…acccbacked Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9b…a68cbacked No | 45c | 193$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.15 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +5.7wins | +0.52per pick | 39cpaid | +165.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7362…1e3abacked No | 65c | 160$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090b…2a7abacked Yes | 51c | 151.61$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a3…7739backed No | 71c | 150$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 59c | 150$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea1…709fbacked No | 51c | 130$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 35c | 127$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.81 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -85%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 32c | 122.54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.32 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c4…740bbacked No | 69c | 120$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed No | 71c | 115.32$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…00afbacked Yes | 75c | 106.25$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69d0…3fe7backed Yes | 23c | 101.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c0…91afbacked Yes | 13c | 101.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 76c | 100.1$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…2a88backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd2…c545backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2af1…6b27backed Yes | 25c | 99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 74c | 98.15$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e6…79b5backed No | 57c | 92.17$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 75c | 91.83$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9081…4774backed Yes | 15c | 89.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…ca94backed No | 61c | 88.47$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3a…be00backed No | 72c | 82.78$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed Yes | 40c | 82.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…66aabacked Yes | 30c | 81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 34c | 80.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 63 | 27%17 W · 46 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…ea5cbacked No | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d7e…7278backed Yes | 79c | 75.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 28c | 63.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed5…0483backed No | 51c | 62.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77d6…972dbacked Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…fca1backed Yes | 66c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x034a…0469backed No | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…5506backed No | 63c | 57.72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa687…53a5backed Yes | 36c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed Yes | 19c | 53.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed Yes | 39c | 53.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 79c | 50.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0275…b936backed Yes | 22c | 50.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e5…6d4abacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…f247backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed No | 62c | 42.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354c…66b2backed Yes | 71c | 41.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ead…f333backed No | 75c | 40.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 73c | 40.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf05c…d8fcbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2773…045cbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…cf4dbacked No | 76c | 39.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…6262backed Yes | 30c | 37.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaae5…6c45backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c2…9ab4backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…a759backed No | 70c | 29.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked No | 59c | 29.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…bb75backed No | 66c | 26.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8b…2aabbacked No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 3.5T yuan?this page
- Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 1.5T yuan?Yes won
- Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 1T yuan?Yes won
- Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 2.5T yuan?Yes won
- Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 2T yuan?Yes won
- Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 3T yuan?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.