TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

IPO · resolved market

Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 3.5T yuan?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$68,737
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$79,201

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,737 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in IPO
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x51de…9e4abacked Yes32c10,566$3,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,416.68366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+29.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8db…f92cbacked Yes33c9,611$3,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,159.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1681…b1c7backed No65c5,888$3,827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,060.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd723…25bfbacked No79c4,464$3,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$958.94250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d6…966bbacked Yes3c3,443$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38d7…8ce0backed No76c2,630$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.64425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-67.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0fc…ce0bbacked No71c2,608$1,845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$762.441435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-40.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4e6…4bd4backed No73c2,365$1,718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.83666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb1b…efb5backed No70c2,000$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5669…0f13backed No70c1,472$1,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.65742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-33.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x300c…6a92backed No63c1,195$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.741050%5 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-15.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fd9…4fdebacked Yes23c1,050$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes7c1,006$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.68841.2%1 W · 83 L-5.8wins-0.07per pick8cpaid-98.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes5c657.91$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.35520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick9cpaid-27.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5ab…b4b3backed Yes49c630.4$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes10c609.62$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1990%0 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56e2…4a79backed Yes16c483.42$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.67837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-33.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes16c464.21$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.781274.7%6 W · 121 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-83.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe78e…6073backed Yes23c419.52$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.49333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No69c415.01$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.953517.1%6 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-73.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No65c362.28$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.254418.2%8 W · 36 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-71.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes23c354.04$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.438129.6%24 W · 57 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e16…5026backed Yes29c315.5$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.651338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbda5…ee3abacked No45c313.29$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.89250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x407d…1baebacked No37c304.96$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9973…bd7fbacked Yes14c300$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3a9…6c89backed No76c297.38$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe74…a70ebacked No66c296.25$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.19850%4 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-24.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f33…914ebacked Yes24c277.29$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.81030%3 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-46.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…c5bebacked Yes22c274.26$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.0740%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa806…83cabacked Yes35c269.16$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.7140%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes30c265.22$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.5730%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe30…87cabacked No72c250$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.53100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+59.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed6c…178bbacked No80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18fc…b534backed No59c228.99$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf07…c770backed Yes63c228.9$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.51844.4%8 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+202.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e60…67e6backed No46c212.11$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+116.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes18c208.64$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.412927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-55.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed Yes21c200$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+33.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes75c200$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No75c200$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505731.6%18 W · 39 L-6.9wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-51.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7165…acccbacked Yes29c200$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f9b…a68cbacked No45c193$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.151190.9%10 W · 1 L+5.7wins+0.52per pick39cpaid+165.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x7362…1e3abacked No65c160$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x090b…2a7abacked Yes51c151.61$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7a3…7739backed No71c150$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.1771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdadb…1870backed No59c150$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ea1…709fbacked No51c130$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes35c127$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.81175.9%1 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.16per pick22cpaid-85%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No32c122.54$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.324829.2%14 W · 34 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-33.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53c4…740bbacked No69c120$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e42…4938backed No71c115.32$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.02250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4278…00afbacked Yes75c106.25$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69d0…3fe7backed Yes23c101.56$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9c0…91afbacked Yes13c101.51$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.05366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+21.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae22…8794backed No76c100.1$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.02250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7532…2a88backed No77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cd2…c545backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2af1…6b27backed Yes25c99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7430%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb431…82ecbacked No74c98.15$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.71333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-54.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6e6…79b5backed No57c92.17$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4708…9580backed No75c91.83$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.96450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9081…4774backed Yes15c89.98$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa37d…ca94backed No61c88.47$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.5540%2 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick17cpaid+55.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa3a…be00backed No72c82.78$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x018a…9522backed Yes40c82.04$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd115…66aabacked Yes30c81$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes34c80.58$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.676327%17 W · 46 L-7.2wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-53.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe8c4…ea5cbacked No65c80$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d7e…7278backed Yes79c75.71$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-32.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd322…8503backed Yes28c63.24$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.39450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbed5…0483backed No51c62.18$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.682100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+83.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x77d6…972dbacked Yes38c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb26…fca1backed Yes66c60$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-30.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x034a…0469backed No31c60$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.22333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca1f…5506backed No63c57.72$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.48450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa687…53a5backed Yes36c55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x126e…c360backed Yes19c53.39$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.21922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.24per pick46cpaid-67.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x56d3…e307backed Yes39c53.22$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.55366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No79c50.36$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.783237.5%12 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0275…b936backed Yes22c50.31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8e5…6d4abacked No69c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f63…f247backed No72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-17.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a8d…7688backed No62c42.5$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x354c…66b2backed Yes71c41.8$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ead…f333backed No75c40.3$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.07250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No73c40.26$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.861752.9%9 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf05c…d8fcbacked No70c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2773…045cbacked No75c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick75cpaid+34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4629…f3b1backed Yes38c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ca…cf4dbacked No76c39.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd91…6262backed Yes30c37.8$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2270%0 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No69c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.32638.5%10 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaae5…6c45backed No75c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-55.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7c2…9ab4backed No67c29.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39b4…a759backed No70c29.83$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked No59c29.65$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e70…bb75backed No66c26.14$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No68c24$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6813932.4%45 W · 94 L-16.7wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-40.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5a8b…2aabbacked No68c22.06$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.