IPO · resolved market
Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 1.5T yuan?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb825c31e8b8dc1328bd6a547e0a554c0c44996d621bb3b3db8f47b3dd3dd2480
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,466
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,466 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ea1…709fbacked No | 4c | 2,991$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 1c | 1,200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaabd…0992backed No | 6c | 1,165$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 4c | 1,124$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -85%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fc…ce0bbacked No | 4c | 997.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.21 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 14c | 938.67$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 831$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89d9…5136backed No | 6c | 808.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 709$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 64 | 0%0 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…914ebacked No | 4c | 676.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked No | 4c | 558.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…c5bebacked No | 3c | 534.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa66c…8460backed No | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 66c | 442.81$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.08 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b3…28a1backed No | 5c | 243.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f7…b1a8backed No | 49c | 80.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed Yes | 44c | 76.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf48…1751backed No | 46c | 58.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed No | 49c | 40.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec4…cfc8backed No | 49c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 39c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67a8…7493backed Yes | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7071…91dfbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bee…cdc5backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 70c | 16.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 1.5T yuan?this page
- Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 1T yuan?Yes won
- Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 2.5T yuan?Yes won
- Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 2T yuan?Yes won
- Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 3.5T yuan?No won
- Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 3T yuan?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.