Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61492af81f5272955926190ae940111d00069b30f84d52599ec3eb2ee8668d04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,636
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,964
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,636 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 78c | 1,023$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.07 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 19c | 549.02$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.13 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…aedfbacked Yes | 15c | 408.82$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 26c | 319.01$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.93 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 76c | 298.15$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 20c | 289.58$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.92 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…ef14backed Yes | 28c | 272.76$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 23c | 201.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 72c | 177.03$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.57 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 167.87$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.49 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 17c | 160.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 16c | 124.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 118.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 21c | 101.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 28c | 100.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1db…62afbacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 70c | 97$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 72c | 96.71$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 29c | 93.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 28c | 83.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 17c | 82.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 71.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 30c | 69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 29c | 68.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 56.37$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 51.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 74c | 47.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 31c | 46.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 26c | 44.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd79…989ebacked Yes | 31c | 43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b43…951fbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 67c | 31.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 70c | 25.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7142…e79ebacked No | 80c | 24.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 24.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 73c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.