Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc69db9c552e7588f3c774b31aa26aaeff0f5afc207102228364c548762ea798d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,407
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,019
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,407 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 1,176$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,021.09 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 38c | 776.14$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.87 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 695.87$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.73 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 32c | 678.82$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.41 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 24c | 642.94$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.87 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 34c | 522.79$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.43 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 47c | 375.61$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.48 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 18c | 373.28$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.67 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…ef14backed Yes | 39c | 372.69$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.45 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 67c | 304$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.7 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 301.86$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.35 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf3…369dbacked No | 73c | 296.75$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.94 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 44c | 290.47$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.48 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 37c | 256.26$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.68 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 251.59$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.59 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 31c | 249.75$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.36 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 222.23$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 50c | 204.36$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.29 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 8c | 191.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 37c | 171.74$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.81 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 29c | 164$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.22 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 153.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 15c | 150$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.83 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 67c | 147.32$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.86 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 145.89$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 39c | 141.07$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.48 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 14c | 126.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 44c | 114.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.51 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 29c | 114.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.22 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 46c | 109.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.64 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 15c | 107.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.87 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 12c | 103.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.78 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 59c | 102.5$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.54 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 20c | 101.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 94$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.56 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 48c | 90$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 67c | 88.33$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.27 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked Yes | 18c | 87.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.21 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3b…05aabacked Yes | 17c | 86.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.75 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 67c | 80.8$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.22 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 36c | 75.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 52c | 71.42$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 16c | 70.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 46c | 69.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 47c | 68.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.76 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 18c | 68.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 59c | 67.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 67c | 67.88$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 25c | 65.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.54 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd1…d8f4backed Yes | 70c | 64.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 80c | 64$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 40c | 55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 24c | 54.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 50c | 53.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 42c | 52.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 42c | 52.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 64c | 52.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 46c | 52.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 65c | 52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 58c | 47.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 30c | 46.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51c1…a853backed Yes | 24c | 45.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 58c | 43.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked Yes | 39c | 40.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…e95ebacked Yes | 38c | 39.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 39.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 60c | 38.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 58c | 37.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 36.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 80c | 36.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 57c | 35.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 39c | 35.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 80c | 34.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 42c | 33.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 63c | 30.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 50c | 30.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…df20backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 58c | 28.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 75c | 28.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 42c | 26.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 42c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 58c | 25.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 62c | 25.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 70c | 24.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 43c | 23.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 19.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…2541backed Yes | 73c | 18.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 67c | 18.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 64c | 17.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 80c | 16.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…56d9backed No | 66c | 15.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.