Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22d1bd9b3deb7ac0166891a3846de7f50ec9ef179d5bec534dcf9ae5864f0e6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,936
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,137
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,936 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 11c | 953.61$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.09 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked Yes | 11c | 945.92$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.14 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 29c | 598.72$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.41 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 520.82$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.97 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 486.68$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.54 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 8c | 482.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 77c | 435.65$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.21 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 19c | 324.65$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.88 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 9c | 301.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 39c | 274.35$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 9c | 240.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 20c | 238.1$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 226.04$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.45 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 28c | 215$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 26c | 191.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 79c | 190.17$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.17 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 18c | 159.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 38c | 157$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 73c | 152.07$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 10c | 146.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 74c | 135.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…d48abacked Yes | 11c | 125.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 121.53$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 79c | 116.61$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 114.78$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 71c | 107.29$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…ef14backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.23 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 29c | 95.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 21c | 95.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 71c | 84.51$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 80c | 84.5$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 71c | 83.31$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 82.03$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 70c | 73$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 80c | 71$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…83a4backed Yes | 29c | 70.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 73c | 62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 32c | 59.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 68c | 59.37$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 58.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 69c | 57.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa462…474fbacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 24c | 52.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 23c | 52.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 74c | 51.12$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 68c | 47.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 73c | 44.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 30c | 41.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 41.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 72c | 35.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked Yes | 30c | 34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…14babacked No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 153 | 75.2%115 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 75c | 26.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed No | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 72c | 23.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 76c | 19.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 73c | 17.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 16.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 69c | 16.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x274a…2246backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed No | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.