Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Haley Stevens win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c618d9813fc00ae7a7e649469f12545ae52cf0c92c2b8637bd4cfe1593507b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,063
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,324
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,063 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 74c | 9,542$7,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,519.23 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed No | 28c | 6,029$1,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,710.19 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 60c | 3,586$2,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,429.95 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 39c | 2,777$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,689.17 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 60c | 2,411$1,453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$957.79 | 136 | 25.7%35 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…0288backed No | 21c | 2,233$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.33 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +7.6wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 69c | 1,842$1,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.58 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…806ebacked No | 26c | 1,420$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.4 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 31c | 1,261$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.84 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 26c | 1,170$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.09 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 10c | 1,128$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.21 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 6c | 1,034$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…7b4dbacked Yes | 77c | 1,006$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 24c | 806.27$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.53 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 27c | 800$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 33c | 694$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.57 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8c…757abacked No | 48c | 679.87$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.29 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 14c | 673$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.16 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 28c | 589$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.92 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 57c | 535.16$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.09 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 65c | 524.12$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.12 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 48c | 511.71$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.56 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 30c | 482.28$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.34 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 23c | 469$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.25 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…9be4backed Yes | 77c | 438.51$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.86 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 26c | 422.67$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.28 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b4…3c5abacked Yes | 69c | 374.17$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.19 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 31c | 360.68$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.88 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 28c | 300.78$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.22 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3144…9502backed Yes | 39c | 300.2$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +157.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | -10.6wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -39%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked Yes | 62c | 299.98$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.09 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +69%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 57c | 297$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.17 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 29c | 261.59$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.6 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked No | 23c | 250$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed No | 22c | 247.05$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.35 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc972…dcd9backed Yes | 34c | 230$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.52 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 57c | 220.49$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.84 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299c…7e23backed No | 27c | 217.18$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.64 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 7c | 209.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bef…3b06backed No | 26c | 208.33$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.17 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 22c | 199.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 22c | 169.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 13c | 168.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ad…eb58backed Yes | 80c | 147.79$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed Yes | 68c | 147.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 46c | 120$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a07…576bbacked No | 17c | 116.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 63c | 116$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 123 | 30.9%38 W · 85 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 20c | 110$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 33c | 109$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 20c | 107.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…0fe6backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53f8…f76ebacked No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15ad…d17abacked No | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde88…144cbacked No | 20c | 91.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 35c | 90.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 28c | 88.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16f5…c651backed Yes | 74c | 84.47$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa32d…df56backed Yes | 78c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ce…83a4backed No | 30c | 73.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -73%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 50c | 69.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d8…76a7backed No | 28c | 68.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 30c | 62.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc8…8f53backed Yes | 59c | 56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb08d…8cc8backed No | 30c | 53.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…e1ccbacked Yes | 57c | 52.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 56c | 52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3e…ea35backed No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34db…2e01backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa935…e865backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -44%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…4cf2backed Yes | 78c | 45.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9edd…013cbacked Yes | 35c | 43.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4e…f93abacked No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb5…c246backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd832…67e0backed No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02d5…2fecbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86f0…610cbacked Yes | 51c | 39.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 28c | 38.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 56c | 35.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed No | 59c | 33.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 47c | 32.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb598…14fcbacked Yes | 62c | 31.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb9…2b63backed Yes | 74c | 30.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 56c | 26.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 54c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 53c | 21.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Haley Stevens win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?this page
- Will Abdul El-Sayed win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.