TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,105
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,078

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,105 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes30c1,859$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.0939427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb476…6eacbacked Yes14c504.1$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706927.5%19 W · 50 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid+16.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes20c478.07$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.652,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes3c399$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.315717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd41…392bbacked Yes33c350$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.51942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes33c300.3$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.12,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae22…8794backed Yes18c300$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5446232.9%152 W · 310 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No69c295.66$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.6589557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes5c290.59$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.432,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No64c260.08$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.994,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1201…005bbacked Yes6c233$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.21679.6%16 W · 151 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-32.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes21c205.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2691444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf44d…28b8backed Yes32c200$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648652.3%45 W · 41 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No70c200$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6077555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes19c197.25$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No72c170.39$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.5260121%126 W · 475 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No70c164.74$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.166,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes19c158.42$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x496d…a2f2backed Yes7c154.79$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.38927%24 W · 65 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+164.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No68c152.48$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.454,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No79c142.72$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.613,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9551…ca44backed No64c140$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.415950.3%80 W · 79 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b9e…0948backed Yes20c139.15$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4410845.4%49 W · 59 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No69c131.13$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.83,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcef6…2adebacked Yes23c125$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2525947.1%122 W · 137 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes37c116.66$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.161,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc90d…c9d2backed Yes36c115.7$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.53145.2%14 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No63c107.14$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.649,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes34c104.58$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.988,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes21c100.46$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3616437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.811,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x567a…b24cbacked Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8912927.1%35 W · 94 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x943f…d29dbacked Yes16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed No70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3070148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.881848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb34d…2a65backed Yes33c93.55$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.875724.6%14 W · 43 L-15.2wins-0.27per pick51cpaid-53.5%equal weight29-0.18 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed Yes37c91.33$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5719737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No71c84$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.783,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No70c79.4$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.152,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No75c79.18$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.824,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes25c78.27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.655,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb167…9c59backed Yes32c78.12$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x398b…0489backed Yes26c76.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205461.1%33 W · 21 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-10.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x843e…e477backed No62c75.25$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.64761.7%29 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes26c75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.560739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a02…576dbacked Yes22c66.12$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.223023.3%7 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd47c…8ed6backed Yes20c66$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.21241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No70c66$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.82,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes37c65$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.052,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes24c62.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0647136.5%172 W · 299 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbcb5…6b65backed Yes21c62.14$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No63c62.04$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.651,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No71c60$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.352,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x515f…a606backed No68c59.99$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.217553.1%93 W · 82 L-8.3wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed Yes34c59.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.71,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9210…70a4backed Yes35c57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.753429.4%10 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick34cpaid+16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddc3…000bbacked Yes24c54.17$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139832.7%32 W · 66 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No60c54$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.61,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No55c53.87$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.2410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b43…951fbacked Yes39c53.67$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212718.5%5 W · 22 L-3.6wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-44.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes37c52.15$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.424,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No79c50.53$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.611,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.91,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2085049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf58a…2a4fbacked Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165841.4%24 W · 34 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae7a…25eabacked No61c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.592761.7%572 W · 355 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No64c48$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2812157%69 W · 52 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes45c46$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.754735.5%194 W · 353 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0032…e886backed Yes24c45.63$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8813537.8%51 W · 84 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes34c43.23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7980130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf48b…136fbacked No79c43.16$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.192161.9%13 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick75cpaid-17.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No62c37.44$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.232,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2057…0629backed Yes30c35.94$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.784847.9%23 W · 25 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1fa…9611backed No56c35.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7115555.5%86 W · 69 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No70c33.32$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf057…ab54backed No69c32.81$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.153959%23 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb924…0803backed No70c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$926067.3%175 W · 85 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81e9…8e07backed No66c29.88$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.0820250.5%102 W · 100 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaff5…14babacked No71c28.17$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1715375.2%115 W · 38 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick74cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked No59c28$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4854253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8095…b843backed No56c27.33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.032944.8%13 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0b5…e373backed Yes42c27.32$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4715128.5%43 W · 108 L-12.7wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-24.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No79c25.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.2518565.4%121 W · 64 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No75c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.22,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fc1…90cfbacked Yes44c23.8$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.475133.3%17 W · 34 L-5.0wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-22%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa016…67c2backed No76c22.33$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3351156.6%289 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed No67c21.94$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2487437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked No69c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.239768.8%273 W · 124 L+11.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x813f…26ecbacked No62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.680962.1%502 W · 307 L-22.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No70c17.23$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.171,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd1c…3f79backed No63c16.6$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1449359%291 W · 202 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x274a…2246backed No79c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.152470.8%17 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b62…042fbacked No76c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.6711859.3%70 W · 48 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c3f…e6a2backed No68c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.88469%58 W · 26 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.