Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x655f991dfd910a6e5eb6d90c159b8440ae4e44891c468516f7c51c786c9e1545
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,078
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 30c | 1,859$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.09 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 14c | 504.1$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 20c | 478.07$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.65 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 3c | 399$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd41…392bbacked Yes | 33c | 350$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 33c | 300.3$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.1 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 69c | 295.66$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.65 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 5c | 290.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 260.08$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.99 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 6c | 233$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 21c | 205.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 19c | 197.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 72c | 170.39$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 164.74$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.16 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 19c | 158.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496d…a2f2backed Yes | 7c | 154.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 152.48$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.45 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 142.72$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 64c | 140$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed Yes | 20c | 139.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 131.13$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 23c | 125$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 37c | 116.66$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc90d…c9d2backed Yes | 36c | 115.7$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 63c | 107.14$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 104.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 21c | 100.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x943f…d29dbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…2a65backed Yes | 33c | 93.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -15.2wins | -0.27per pick | 51cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed Yes | 37c | 91.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 84$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 70c | 79.4$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 75c | 79.18$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 25c | 78.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb167…9c59backed Yes | 32c | 78.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398b…0489backed Yes | 26c | 76.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e477backed No | 62c | 75.25$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 26c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…576dbacked Yes | 22c | 66.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd47c…8ed6backed Yes | 20c | 66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 70c | 66$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 24c | 62.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb5…6b65backed Yes | 21c | 62.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 63c | 62.04$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 68c | 59.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 34c | 59.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9210…70a4backed Yes | 35c | 57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 24c | 54.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 60c | 54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 53.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b43…951fbacked Yes | 39c | 53.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 37c | 52.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 79c | 50.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58a…2a4fbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No | 64c | 48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 45c | 46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 24c | 45.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 34c | 43.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf48b…136fbacked No | 79c | 43.16$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 75cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 62c | 37.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2057…0629backed Yes | 30c | 35.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 70c | 33.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 69c | 32.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 66c | 29.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…14babacked No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 153 | 75.2%115 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 59c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8095…b843backed No | 56c | 27.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 42c | 27.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 79c | 25.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc1…90cfbacked Yes | 44c | 23.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 76c | 22.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 67c | 21.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 70c | 17.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 63c | 16.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x274a…2246backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or below on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on July 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.