TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on July 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$45,240
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$47,716

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,240 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes5c1,744$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,658.2645130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No44c1,440$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6334,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No47c1,280$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.314,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd351…b2d9backed Yes75c1,258$944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.983240.6%13 W · 19 L-5.0wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-39.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8b9e…0948backed Yes50c1,196$604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.1410845.4%49 W · 59 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes10c1,180$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,062.8139427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes6c1,061$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$998.981,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec3a…a709backed No77c1,032$797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$796.565451.9%28 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaebd…a26fbacked No65c1,020$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.045742.1%24 W · 33 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No58c865.05$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.981,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes36c753.04$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.086533.8%22 W · 43 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-29.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes3c731.58$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.11,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes69c714.83$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.4327047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No42c634.7$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.516,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No44c410$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1814,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No59c409.09$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.253,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes71c401.47$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.5210447.1%49 W · 55 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No33c341.9$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.072,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No29c316.56$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.892,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes4c308.5$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.223129.4%68 W · 163 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes6c295.64$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.916532.1%53 W · 112 L-9.4wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes10c284.69$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.5925839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No41c267.18$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.2783459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8383…cb59backed No12c245.61$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3849543.6%216 W · 279 L+31.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x81e9…8e07backed No16c241.74$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8320250.5%102 W · 100 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb38…467cbacked Yes69c230$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.854656.5%26 W · 20 L-0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No12c226.5$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.677151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x710b…a42dbacked Yes12c220.83$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.7320327.1%55 W · 148 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes73c217.11$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.7514932.9%49 W · 100 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No18c216.88$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7395852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe32a…a7f9backed Yes32c210.91$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.244564.4%29 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick66cpaid+1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No29c208.18$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.71,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6932…5f93backed Yes9c205.3$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.744621.7%10 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No25c185.73$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.8771057.9%411 W · 299 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed Yes7c185.14$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.241,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No36c167.07$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.642,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes27c163.1$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.133,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No23c162.69$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.792,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No23c161.6$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.292,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeec8…b2c9backed Yes47c148.97$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.974017.5%7 W · 33 L-5.0wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-62.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No31c146.34$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.362,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No54c143.05$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.232,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No38c128.28$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.82,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8bdc…a0babacked No80c125.4$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008068.8%55 W · 25 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Yes68c121.5$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.931,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes30c120$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes26c115.01$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.7227335.9%98 W · 175 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No68c111.55$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.7812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No45c107.85$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.692,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed No78c100$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7881848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb139…29a1backed Yes80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205046%23 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3dd…81b2backed Yes35c99.99$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.894431.8%14 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No15c99.1$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No72c94$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.535,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes32c86.05$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.862,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No59c85.42$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3799961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e40…2e56backed No74c81.08$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606660.6%40 W · 26 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf743…63e1backed Yes62c80.78$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.782846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+24.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes31c74.89$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.632,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No51c74.66$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.271,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa26f…e9bfbacked No64c70$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.472347.8%11 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.13per pick61cpaid-23.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No24c70$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.012,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb546…ca22backed No50c67.29$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8720660.2%124 W · 82 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc97e…09abbacked No64c64.24$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4116161.5%99 W · 62 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e90…c892backed Yes78c64.2$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-26.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes21c59.64$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.234,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2837…fd84backed No33c57.47$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.934161%25 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c30…0ac6backed Yes22c49.58$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.94751.1%24 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x229a…dbc8backed Yes74c48.37$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.371163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaff9…8e3cbacked Yes25c47.32$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.567862.8%49 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb07…5b0fbacked No28c47.02$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1312060%72 W · 48 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a20…c1b5backed No59c47$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.931553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes29c44.14$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.220546.8%96 W · 109 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes62c44$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.7614334.3%49 W · 94 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+57.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed No70c40$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1227246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xac67…e084backed Yes76c39.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.56683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick73cpaid+16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No74c37$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.381,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09c2…8210backed Yes68c35.13$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.354154%292 W · 249 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x01a9…75ddbacked No79c33.37$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2524141.9%101 W · 140 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2d0…d991backed Yes76c31.73$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.715560%33 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.22,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6527…c01fbacked Yes76c29.42$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.211675%12 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+24.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1df1…6803backed No42c27.52$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.66425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-53.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6b6…402ebacked Yes70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7f1…7107backed Yes77c19.48$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.485950.8%30 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick55cpaid+29.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc295…c520backed Yes77c18.62$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.24463.6%28 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a89…de7dbacked Yes62c18.42$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78356.6%47 W · 36 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.