Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5119e0906d883d1f44a26684ac02c862e8f9d5d4b4b481be9a11b98ceae873bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,061
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,559
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,061 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 19c | 1,118$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.47 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 19c | 1,096$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.03 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 3c | 894.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 2c | 878$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 13c | 869.42$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.96 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 80c | 788.96$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.28 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed No | 77c | 728.11$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.74 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 692.71$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.76 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 12c | 665.1$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.81 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked Yes | 29c | 605.78$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.01 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 29c | 603.75$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.66 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 27c | 601.15$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 77c | 555.01$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.29 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 454.95$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 19c | 434.91$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.69 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…aedfbacked Yes | 8c | 432.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 402.18$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.36 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 11c | 401.89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 7c | 398.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 17c | 387.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 74c | 349.13$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.77 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 77c | 324.16$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.86 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 13c | 307.77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 74c | 300$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.2 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 24c | 239$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.24 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 235.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 28c | 218.62$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.63 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 14c | 204.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 204$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.22 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 6c | 194.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 180$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.34 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 28c | 179.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 74c | 179.96$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.13 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496d…a2f2backed Yes | 27c | 159.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…c64fbacked Yes | 13c | 153.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 152.72$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.72 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f4…6950backed Yes | 14c | 142.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 22c | 136.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 39c | 127.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 13c | 126.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x267d…ed00backed Yes | 16c | 123.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 74c | 120.22$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 17c | 119.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc90d…c9d2backed Yes | 12c | 115.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes | 15c | 115$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…e636backed Yes | 14c | 113.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 48c | 104.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x579d…247cbacked Yes | 29c | 100.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 77 | 29.9%23 W · 54 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 72c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 16c | 98.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 73c | 97.75$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 12c | 95.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…5f93backed Yes | 17c | 95.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 72c | 89.98$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 80.98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 80c | 80.48$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 68c | 77.75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf7…c485backed Yes | 15c | 74.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 73.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 73$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 79c | 72.69$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…1c49backed Yes | 43c | 64.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 33c | 64.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 61c | 64.15$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 17c | 64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 39c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…ea0bbacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…e95ebacked Yes | 43c | 58.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4bd…919ebacked Yes | 23c | 57.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 72c | 55.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 21c | 55.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3dd…81b2backed Yes | 34c | 54.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 68c | 52.54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe81b…95b9backed No | 79c | 52.44$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 78cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 75c | 52.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c33…f910backed Yes | 21c | 51.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 74c | 50.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…7a72backed No | 69c | 47.78$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4b…48bdbacked Yes | 25c | 44.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 69c | 44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed No | 63c | 43.78$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 72c | 43.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 71c | 42.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3460…7f71backed Yes | 49c | 40.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…f4fcbacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 70c | 39.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 68c | 39.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 72c | 35.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 31c | 34.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d48…3fdfbacked No | 77c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…3cc3backed No | 71c | 32.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed Yes | 43c | 32.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or below on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on July 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.