TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on July 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$32,061
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,559

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,061 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes19c1,118$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.4745130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes19c1,096$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.031,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes3c894.16$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.821,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf421…efcebacked Yes2c878$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0742820.1%86 W · 342 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes13c869.42$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.9639427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No80c788.96$629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.282,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b9e…0948backed No77c728.11$559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.7410845.4%49 W · 59 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes20c692.71$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.7610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes12c665.1$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.8172042.2%304 W · 416 L+26.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4941…a2bebacked Yes29c605.78$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.0112450.8%63 W · 61 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes29c603.75$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.6625135.1%88 W · 163 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes27c601.15$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No77c555.01$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.294,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No77c454.95$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1045,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb476…6eacbacked Yes19c434.91$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.696927.5%19 W · 50 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid+16.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5999…aedfbacked Yes8c432.74$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes21c402.18$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.368,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes11c401.89$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.019,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes7c398.49$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8485330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes17c387.99$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.63,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No74c349.13$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.774,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x361c…99d4backed No77c324.16$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.8611965.5%78 W · 41 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes13c307.77$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.173,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No74c300$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.21,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes24c239$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.2463143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes11c235.68$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.197,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7adc…a971backed Yes28c218.62$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.6315040%60 W · 90 L+9.9wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes14c204.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.711,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No72c204$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.224,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed Yes6c194.95$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.541,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No77c180$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.343,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes28c179.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6723129.4%68 W · 163 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No74c179.96$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.1360121%126 W · 475 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x496d…a2f2backed Yes27c159.98$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.68927%24 W · 65 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+164.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1355…c64fbacked Yes13c153.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-61.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No78c152.72$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.723,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89f4…6950backed Yes14c142.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.822236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes22c136.03$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5156434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf46…1d91backed Yes39c127.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.267234.7%25 W · 47 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes13c126.65$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.452,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x267d…ed00backed Yes16c123.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203444.1%15 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No74c120.22$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.661,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes17c119.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.791,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc90d…c9d2backed Yes12c115.73$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.193145.2%14 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes15c115$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.219047.8%43 W · 47 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa804…e636backed Yes14c113.37$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1840%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes48c104.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9527335.9%98 W · 175 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x579d…247cbacked Yes29c100.89$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.757729.9%23 W · 54 L+0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid+18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe6e…2313backed No72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.126256.5%148 W · 114 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4027047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4476…c5fcbacked No70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.442547.5%202 W · 223 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1015717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d70…cc5ebacked No72c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.515666%103 W · 53 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes16c98.45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.33,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No73c97.75$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.12,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes12c95.91$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5616532.1%53 W · 112 L-9.4wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6932…5f93backed Yes17c95.76$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.894621.7%10 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed No72c89.98$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8330442.8%130 W · 174 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No71c80.98$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.329,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No80c80.48$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.372,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No68c77.75$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6183459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbf7…c485backed Yes15c74.2$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2450%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes25c73.81$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No74c73$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No79c72.69$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.362,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf673…1c49backed Yes43c64.89$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.664753.2%25 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked Yes33c64.65$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0372952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No61c64.15$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.011,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes17c64$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8854735.5%194 W · 353 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes39c60$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5556048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd41…ea0bbacked Yes17c60$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.17549.3%37 W · 38 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0386…e95ebacked Yes43c58.7$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4bd…919ebacked Yes23c57.66$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No72c55.22$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.223,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes21c55.04$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.595742.1%24 W · 33 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3dd…81b2backed Yes34c54.94$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.454431.8%14 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No68c52.54$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.868867.2%462 W · 226 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe81b…95b9backed No79c52.44$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.81475%3 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick78cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No75c52.25$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.874,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c33…f910backed Yes21c51.56$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No74c50.25$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.253,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2316437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.97540%30 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xae7a…25eabacked No76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.1592761.7%572 W · 355 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4fc…7a72backed No69c47.78$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.727159.2%42 W · 29 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e4b…48bdbacked Yes25c44.23$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114540%18 W · 27 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No69c44$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.812,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed No63c43.78$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2540337.2%150 W · 253 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No72c43.29$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2560054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed No71c42.03$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.032,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3460…7f71backed Yes49c40.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6edc…f4fcbacked Yes30c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.963432.4%11 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No70c39.81$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.041,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No68c39.36$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6342160.6%255 W · 166 L-25.0wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe43f…a889backed No72c35.45$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7517457.5%100 W · 74 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes31c34.3$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4930333%100 W · 203 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+24.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d48…3fdfbacked No77c34$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.731675%12 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+45.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x152f…3cc3backed No71c32.71$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.524057.5%23 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf225…42e0backed Yes43c32.1$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8411947.1%56 W · 63 L+8.2wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.