TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on July 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$36,248
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$36,995

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,248 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes17c1,798$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.239427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes6c1,521$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.628,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes21c1,475$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.4545130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes32c1,091$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.161,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No76c855.21$654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.651,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No76c817.72$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.772,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes14c781.49$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.681,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x496d…a2f2backed Yes2c744.57$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.318927%24 W · 65 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+164.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes61c699.99$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.786533.8%22 W · 43 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-29.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd351…b2d9backed No77c639.73$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.793240.6%13 W · 19 L-5.0wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-39.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6297…517ebacked Yes3c593.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.311,64327.8%456 W · 1,187 L+117.6wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+33%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes9c560.98$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.893,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes11c527.69$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.373,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes5c510.63$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.399,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No76c484$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.64,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No77c454.65$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.34,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No74c424$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.94,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb476…6eacbacked Yes53c416.38$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.716927.5%19 W · 50 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid+16.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes12c414.84$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1685330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No77c375$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.795,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes12c333.74$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6160121%126 W · 475 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf61b…575abacked Yes5c315.86$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes16c315.56$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0416532.1%53 W · 112 L-9.4wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x82d8…03eabacked Yes4c314.09$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9111612.1%14 W · 102 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-31.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes9c283.23$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.692,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No78c277.57$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.192,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes5c265.7$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.91,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6932…5f93backed Yes19c264.41$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.014621.7%10 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes18c240.87$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.82,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes43c237.94$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10314932.9%49 W · 100 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c235.29$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.152,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1201…005bbacked Yes7c225.9$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.011679.6%16 W · 151 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-32.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b9e…0948backed Yes27c225.63$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.1910845.4%49 W · 59 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed Yes9c225.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.621,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes10c215.37$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7856434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes16c214.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3425135.1%88 W · 163 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes22c199.97$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.611,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf46…1d91backed Yes6c197.94$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.057234.7%25 W · 47 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No79c189$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.433,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x879d…b501backed Yes11c187.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6560519.7%119 W · 486 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No79c181.92$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.422,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes10c176.86$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No67c163.36$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.31,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No72c161.58$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.782,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No80c161.19$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.571057.9%411 W · 299 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No67c156.27$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.782,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No66c151.27$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes8c148.79$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8157044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa26f…e9bfbacked No78c145.98$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.42347.8%11 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.13per pick61cpaid-23.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes55c140.01$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.2425839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes34c138.06$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.522,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7adc…a971backed Yes16c133.51$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8915040%60 W · 90 L+9.9wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2cfb…636dbacked Yes9c133.24$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.511225%28 W · 84 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-14.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed No76c126.84$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.9830442.8%130 W · 174 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf421…efcebacked Yes24c117.16$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6442820.1%86 W · 342 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes26c100.21$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x6e40…2e56backed No62c97$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.056660.6%40 W · 26 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No57c94.5$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.411,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No73c78.53$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.12,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No58c74.66$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.391,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeec8…b2c9backed Yes27c69.09$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.464017.5%7 W · 33 L-5.0wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-62.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc97e…09abbacked No70c68.67$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.9316161.5%99 W · 62 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes19c67.45$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.877540%30 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb546…ca22backed No68c65.11$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7320660.2%124 W · 82 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8810…0e4dbacked No78c64.18$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.122020%4 W · 16 L-4.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-62.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No73c60.98$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.633,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes49c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2856048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked No50c58$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.922,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed Yes33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5527246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89f4…6950backed Yes41c49.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.072236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65bf…17c9backed Yes63c47.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x868b…f600backed Yes33c44.76$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.583158.1%18 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No45c37$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.241,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.82,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c30…0ac6backed Yes59c29.08$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.154751.1%24 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5954…266abacked Yes44c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.085255.8%29 W · 23 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xadda…684cbacked No80c24.36$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.928580%68 W · 17 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a85…70f5backed No49c21.31$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.891154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4df…e6cfbacked No71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8213862.3%86 W · 52 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No71c16.89$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.991861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0977…53ccbacked No80c12.93$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.596966.7%46 W · 23 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.