TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,937
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,637

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,937 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7b20…bc23backed No63c1,110$695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.1181165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes3c976.62$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4345130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes32c924.62$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.991,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No79c872.76$691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.344,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No77c790.78$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.972,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes41c720.13$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.7925135.1%88 W · 163 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No79c618.38$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.191,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x477f…9144backed Yes2c539.23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.189741.2%40 W · 57 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes19c518.17$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.653,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8e3…07bcbacked No59c512.23$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.239976.8%76 W · 23 L+8.3wins+0.08per pick68cpaid+12.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes5c479.63$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.92,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes35c478.93$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.1123129.4%68 W · 163 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No61c445.05$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.12,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes34c410.87$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.739427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb476…6eacbacked Yes41c367.56$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.726927.5%19 W · 50 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid+16.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1201…005bbacked Yes5c365.35$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.041679.6%16 W · 151 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-32.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes34c344.62$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.2710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No60c300.62$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.944,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No61c299.99$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1171,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No78c288$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.254,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No63c276.97$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.8860121%126 W · 475 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x76c2…a675backed Yes44c260.29$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.28per pick40cpaid-72.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No58c255.89$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.123,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No59c254.36$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1055,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes7c228$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4644945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…1d91backed Yes35c207.92$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.387234.7%25 W · 47 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No63c203.04$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.9412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4941…a2bebacked Yes41c201.95$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.4512450.8%63 W · 61 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes35c201.62$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.0629732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeba1…44dfbacked Yes25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.142528%7 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-0.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x302c…abcebacked Yes35c173.89$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.6916724.6%41 W · 126 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes39c161.54$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No65c159.4$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.283,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No58c152.97$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.774,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf673…1c49backed Yes44c146.37$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.864753.2%25 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No71c142.72$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.023,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed No58c130.39$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.5719737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No72c126.16$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.9557044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes20c124.77$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2516532.1%53 W · 112 L-9.4wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes37c123.11$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.168,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc90d…c9d2backed Yes36c115.65$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.093145.2%14 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92eb…9668backed Yes44c114.51$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010936.7%40 W · 69 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes46c109.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5045238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x496d…a2f2backed Yes30c107.24$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.68927%24 W · 65 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+164.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No70c100.56$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.561,03668.6%711 W · 325 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.981848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x567a…b24cbacked Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2912927.1%35 W · 94 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff83…a97dbacked Yes41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1015717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No60c99.99$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked No76c97.3$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.241,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7adc…a971backed Yes31c96.83$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8415040%60 W · 90 L+9.9wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes42c93.73$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.362,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes41c83.73$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5865934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes30c81.85$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2467633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes46c80$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.827047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No62c80$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.431649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes19c78.8$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0924141.9%101 W · 140 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb167…9c59backed Yes41c78$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.36955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0386…e95ebacked Yes42c77.73$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.552347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No63c76.06$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.526,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc3e1…ac51backed Yes44c75.88$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.011650%8 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes33c75$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6860739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2df9…4534backed Yes43c69.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3025747.5%122 W · 135 L+1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd338…9fd3backed No56c66.16$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1129351.5%151 W · 142 L-14.3wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-13.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No67c65.57$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.644,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x572b…83dbbacked Yes24c65.54$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No57c65$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.951,01058.1%587 W · 423 L-34.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd47c…8ed6backed Yes42c64.77$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.21241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes47c63.81$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3038454.9%211 W · 173 L+26.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No61c62.44$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.232,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes46c61.87$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4681558.5%477 W · 338 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No63c61.85$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.981,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes40c60.01$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8956434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x65c7…e100backed Yes31c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.822744.1%100 W · 127 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No63c59.99$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.212,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9210…70a4backed Yes37c58.58$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.843429.4%10 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick34cpaid+16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfc4…8369backed Yes42c52.38$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ae…2475backed No54c51.56$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.7157150.4%288 W · 283 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No56c51.13$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.491,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2057…0629backed No64c50.99$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.364847.9%23 W · 25 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes37c50.32$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.565742.1%24 W · 33 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a56…be30backed Yes29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.546452.2%242 W · 222 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf58a…2a4fbacked Yes43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.55841.4%24 W · 34 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39c9…b108backed Yes39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.534457%196 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cc6…22a6backed Yes39c49.49$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.36439.1%25 W · 39 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes36c49.14$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.662,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes30c48.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.749047.8%43 W · 47 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44fd…8223backed Yes42c47.59$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201625%4 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-38.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x267d…ed00backed Yes44c45.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203444.1%15 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes47c45$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1519541.5%81 W · 114 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No60c45$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.160054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No58c43.16$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.114,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes36c43.07$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7280130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes47c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.83,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x152f…3cc3backed No59c39.93$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.374057.5%23 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No80c39.67$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.982,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No60c38.22$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2991861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae7a…25eabacked No63c36.45$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4992761.7%572 W · 355 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x671a…0c9cbacked Yes46c36$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.565457.4%31 W · 23 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.