Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91e8a6f7b340371a30c907caecf2dc283b4e95cccd2586dfc92c758f3a616134
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,527
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,527 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 487.74$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.48 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes | 48c | 345$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.6 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 306.74$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.7 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 54c | 258.48$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.64 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 44c | 204.61$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 48c | 204.29$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.6 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 42c | 197.75$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.83 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 49c | 186.36$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.9 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 44c | 167.74$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 166.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4df…b0d4backed Yes | 80c | 163.35$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 23c | 162.47$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.31 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 56c | 159.14$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.41 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e7…8ffbbacked Yes | 71c | 140.16$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 58c | 123.58$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.64 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 39c | 121$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 62c | 118.26$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.29 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 57c | 107.39$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.7 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 47c | 102.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc90d…c9d2backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda4c…609abacked Yes | 42c | 97.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 39c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 25c | 69.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.85 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 37c | 68.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a5…9156backed Yes | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 54c | 67.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 44c | 65.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 57c | 65.54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x589b…0381backed Yes | 64c | 57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 55c | 54.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 56c | 54.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 54.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 27c | 53.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…cc30backed Yes | 48c | 52.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 51.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 41c | 50.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 57c | 50.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 40c | 50.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 45c | 49.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc295…c520backed Yes | 64c | 48.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 76c | 48.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 51c | 46.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked Yes | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…0ad4backed Yes | 78c | 44.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 48c | 41.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f7…4a5abacked Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 30c | 39.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 45c | 36.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 52c | 35.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 52c | 35.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 52c | 35.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 52c | 35.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 41c | 33.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 42c | 33.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e64…279fbacked Yes | 42c | 32.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc169…0657backed Yes | 45c | 31.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 41c | 31.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 56c | 30.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…df20backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 60c | 28.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 61c | 28.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 57c | 27.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb782…aa2dbacked Yes | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98cf…852abacked Yes | 75c | 26.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 72cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 41c | 25.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a20…c1b5backed Yes | 62c | 24.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 23.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 47c | 23.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 44c | 23.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c4…a460backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 60c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 59c | 18.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 63c | 18.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 58c | 17.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.