Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4c9e18b8f07088858ee28629481d1d14599e1e686fcfbcb337d930516935ab6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,410
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4cad…3edebacked No | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 8c | 1,202$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.68 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 50c | 799.71$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.9 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 779.27$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.76 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 527.59$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.81 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 18c | 396.56$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.77 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes | 38c | 350$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.6 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 75c | 235.99$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.55 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 12c | 183.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.13 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 69c | 150$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.12 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 13c | 148.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.78 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc898…b0f8backed No | 71c | 139.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 69c | 136.64$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.57 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 135.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.53 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 18c | 134.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.72 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 27c | 134.28$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.09 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 68c | 131.67$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.79 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 115$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 35c | 111.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.79 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 66c | 110.85$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.51 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 66c | 105.49$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.81 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 38c | 102.56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.59 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc90d…c9d2backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb488…dd85backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 33c | 97.38$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.37 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f1…d881backed No | 13c | 97.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 35c | 84.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.84 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 16c | 83.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.85 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 16c | 82.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.63 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 78c | 80$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.6 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 15c | 75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 15c | 74.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.7 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f7…1c76backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 28c | 69.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.78 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 72c | 63.21$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 26c | 61.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 67c | 55.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 70c | 53.64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…cc30backed Yes | 33c | 51.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 68c | 50.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked Yes | 28c | 37.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 61c | 35.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 74c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 29c | 34.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…7e34backed Yes | 32c | 34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 74c | 32.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 32.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 47c | 32.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 75c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 65c | 30.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 66c | 30.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 69c | 28.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed No | 72c | 28.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 28.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 57c | 25.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed No | 75c | 24.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 75c | 24.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 23.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 62c | 22.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed Yes | 72c | 22.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90e…3f50backed No | 60c | 21.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 74c | 20.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8f…8d48backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +218.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 68c | 19.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 73c | 18.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 71c | 18.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x89f1…52e4backed No | 74c | 15.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 73c | 14.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x589b…0381backed No | 73c | 14.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.