Movies · resolved market
Will "72 Hours" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a265a2b208def9083d26199391f6df0cff2548ddd556a818f13c7ff03cec49a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,396
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66cb…3dd2backed Yes | 73c | 3,601$2,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.77 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…99ebbacked No | 39c | 1,901$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.9 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b0…0822backed Yes | 72c | 1,394$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.16 | 19 | 94.7%18 W · 1 L | +5.6wins | +0.30per pick | 65cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed No | 10c | 853.63$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.36 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 30c | 671.38$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.46 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 12c | 562.91$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.4 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 22c | 528.92$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.39 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 10c | 461.37$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 119 | 24.4%29 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No | 8c | 441$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 53c | 432.78$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.41 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01e9…5250backed Yes | 77c | 429.99$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.5 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 7c | 350$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 82 | 25.6%21 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 24c | 322.12$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.89 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…15e1backed Yes | 29c | 322$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.69 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | +14.1wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 4c | 280$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 10c | 265$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4f…747cbacked Yes | 62c | 259$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.42 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +10.1wins | +0.42per pick | 37cpaid | +355.5%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 21c | 245.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.76 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb93f…9a79backed No | 43c | 239$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.47 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 24c | 212.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.22 | 129 | 38.8%50 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked No | 26c | 196.32$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.66 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 7c | 195$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 12c | 184$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…337bbacked No | 45c | 177$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.42 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -78%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed No | 62c | 128$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.98 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 27c | 108.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67ce…cd2fbacked No | 38c | 101$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 25cpaid | +157.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 23c | 99.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 71c | 93.74$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.56 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…3ce8backed No | 36c | 92.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbda5…ee3abacked No | 21c | 85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed No | 41c | 84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +161%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 24c | 81.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 19c | 73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -7.8wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 20c | 64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 23c | 62.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -5.1wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 33c | 59.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 65c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed No | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9362…d4a4backed No | 71c | 34.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 37c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…1a2abacked Yes | 75c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed Yes | 65c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -14.8wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -4.9wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2247…4304backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 70c | 16.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -46%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 77c | 14.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "72 Hours" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?this page
- Will "A Toxic Love Story" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?No won
- Will "Desire" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.