Movies · resolved market
Will "A Toxic Love Story" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1cf2312d44937700a35f86f86bd4f26f2e787f7a792f14ba833c4dd78607ff7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,442
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,442 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 17c | 2,800$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.07 | 95 | 6.3%6 W · 89 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -79%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 11c | 1,452$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.63 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,300$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 15c | 525.75$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 323.24$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.18 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x152e…0b72backed Yes | 8c | 186.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01e9…5250backed Yes | 21c | 164.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Yes | 17c | 160.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 100.02$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed Yes | 26c | 96.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed Yes | 17c | 94.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked Yes | 21c | 49.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 130 | 34.6%45 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 74c | 33.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 129 | 38.8%50 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 56c | 27.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 72c | 21.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2247…4304backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "A Toxic Love Story" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?this page
- Will "72 Hours" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?Yes won
- Will "Desire" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.