Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Nic Zateslo be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x754f4135175beba99eb0d04ac9d0b8232b1f10be91894d559a03a19b060bef3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,904
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,143
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,904 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 12c | 3,075$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.36 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed No | 75c | 2,611$1,969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.61 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed Yes | 11c | 990.32$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.62 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2a…8371backed Yes | 33c | 612.22$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 11c | 550$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.81 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked No | 78c | 547$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.2 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedcb…54b1backed Yes | 27c | 474.21$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 20c | 427.89$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.74 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…337bbacked Yes | 8c | 415.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 10c | 408.12$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.98 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94cc…1df5backed Yes | 30c | 400$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 70c | 350.03$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.53 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 350$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc676…f35cbacked Yes | 23c | 289.6$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.82 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 6c | 221$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2388…73d2backed Yes | 25c | 212.04$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.96 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 14c | 177.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 136 | 25.7%35 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 75c | 177$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.39 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 25c | 164$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb15…000cbacked Yes | 20c | 155$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad7f…c31fbacked Yes | 24c | 150.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed No | 69c | 147.54$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.74 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 54c | 135$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.43 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked No | 80c | 132.43$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.53 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 126$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes | 26c | 125.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 97$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed No | 66c | 93.04$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 18c | 76.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe88f…c4febacked Yes | 21c | 56.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed No | 73c | 54.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x738a…5996backed No | 70c | 47.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 24c | 47.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3a…cdddbacked No | 74c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b8…35d7backed No | 74c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 73c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x317a…2227backed Yes | 31c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 65c | 30.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 80c | 28.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08ef…e466backed No | 71c | 25.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 69c | 24.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 75c | 16.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nic Zateslo be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?this page
- Will Amanda Green be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?Yes won
- Will Brice Barnes be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?No won
- Will Yen Bailey be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.