Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Yen Bailey be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33ec826f37e05a1b981d8f4c8129042030ea5dbdf8e32861727649f1f2695239
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,001
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,001 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd5d…1614backed No | 35c | 4,000$1,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,605.54 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 65c | 3,021$1,964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,964.37 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 41c | 1,401$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.37 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 50c | 1,185$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.85 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed Yes | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 59c | 939$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.77 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed Yes | 50c | 833.78$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.85 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed No | 44c | 709.99$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.19 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 59c | 600$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 44c | 549$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.76 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 58c | 522.3$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.71 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12e4…dfc2backed Yes | 59c | 519.67$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.76 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98a1…163abacked Yes | 56c | 499.45$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 79c | 494.38$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.41 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 64c | 485$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.02 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 41c | 477.49$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.65 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fd…1a80backed Yes | 51c | 449.21$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 37c | 435$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.82 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x668b…8e86backed Yes | 10c | 431.85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc676…f35cbacked Yes | 40c | 427.54$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.7 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 54c | 400$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 55c | 399.99$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 34c | 395$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.7 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed Yes | 60c | 350$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc972…dcd9backed No | 45c | 348.51$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.94 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 327$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.72 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d64…3c50backed Yes | 71c | 315.44$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbae1…89bdbacked Yes | 45c | 307.6$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.48 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 66c | 300$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 55c | 276$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.93 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 68c | 275.49$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.54 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 59c | 268.54$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.3 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa7…3767backed No | 48c | 226.92$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +107.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed Yes | 38c | 225.21$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.58 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 216.66$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2388…73d2backed Yes | 30c | 216.52$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.74 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 33c | 204.78$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.07 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 34c | 202.76$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.07 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 75c | 201$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.75 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 42c | 195.74$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.4 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 55c | 195.47$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.43 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed No | 61c | 192$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.16 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 61c | 187.42$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.67 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 57c | 177.98$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.92 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0d…fa97backed Yes | 65c | 160.25$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.58 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 34c | 160$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.2 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 28c | 158.4$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.05 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…337bbacked Yes | 32c | 151$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 143.19$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 69c | 139.09$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.61 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 52c | 130.41$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.05 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3872…bb1dbacked Yes | 40c | 120.08$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed No | 58c | 120$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.9 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…c857backed Yes | 31c | 119.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +126.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf453…a674backed No | 51c | 107.17$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 69c | 105.51$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 46c | 100.9$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.2 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 55c | 100.18$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.68 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.67 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ef…e466backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 49c | 90.64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.81 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 54c | 90$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 28c | 89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.08 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed Yes | 54c | 87.15$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x321e…9292backed Yes | 31c | 80.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 41c | 74.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…c00dbacked Yes | 53c | 66.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…9ad4backed No | 59c | 65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 77c | 64.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815a…af37backed No | 51c | 64.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 60c | 64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | -10.6wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -39%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec9…fbf1backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c74…c5e3backed Yes | 67c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…0439backed Yes | 42c | 58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 32c | 53.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0c…9db8backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd2…c545backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed No | 65c | 49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6096…febfbacked Yes | 37c | 44.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 34c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…cb8dbacked No | 60c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 44c | 40.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed No | 60c | 40.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…9aeabacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83f4…c2a8backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc833…eec3backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 69c | 39.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Yen Bailey be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?this page
- Will Amanda Green be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?Yes won
- Will Brice Barnes be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?No won
- Will Nic Zateslo be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.