Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Amanda Green be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2609ec8beb0c41b11f7ba871624c2ea57791ab961ab32f33c5ce5875af29c2d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,149
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,231
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,149 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 39c | 4,541$1,771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,770.65 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed No | 72c | 3,242$2,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,329.98 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 21c | 1,155$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915.62 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…1614backed Yes | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 77c | 964.1$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.39 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed No | 68c | 629.37$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.97 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 63c | 561.39$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.25 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc972…dcd9backed Yes | 16c | 556.15$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.54 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 37c | 512.38$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.81 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed Yes | 24c | 440$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.6 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 32c | 410.06$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.84 | 314 | 34.1%107 W · 207 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 8c | 322.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 20c | 301.07$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.04 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc676…f35cbacked Yes | 29c | 298$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.01 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 23c | 293.2$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.77 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 26c | 256$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.08 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 68c | 216$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.52 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2388…73d2backed Yes | 25c | 212$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 24c | 185$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.6 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | -10.6wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -39%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 23c | 175$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.43 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 24c | 165$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.13 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 78c | 157.95$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.89 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 9c | 155.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 153$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.92 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3872…bb1dbacked Yes | 32c | 150.11$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.07 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked Yes | 27c | 150$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 25c | 148.28$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.21 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 66c | 147.36$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.95 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 145$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.6 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 144.72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.09 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 52c | 141.18$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.75 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes | 29c | 125$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.75 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed Yes | 20c | 117.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.11 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +65%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 63c | 105.03$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.75 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…c857backed Yes | 24c | 104.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.41 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +126.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x815a…af37backed Yes | 32c | 102.34$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.59 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 66c | 100.9$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…b9f9backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 13c | 93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf453…a674backed Yes | 20c | 92.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.94 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9517…f0b3backed Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 78c | 87$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.86 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab57…e05fbacked No | 77c | 86.92$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.93 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes | 16c | 85.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.81 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 75c | 84.91$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.89 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…eee8backed Yes | 33c | 80$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 38c | 78.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 73$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.79 | 449 | 35.2%158 W · 291 L | -37.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 26c | 72.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 74c | 71.72$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.31 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…35f0backed Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.38 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 27c | 65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.45 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 18c | 63.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 19c | 57.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…2ad3backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd2…c545backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6096…febfbacked Yes | 31c | 44.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3a…cdddbacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7f…6413backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x321e…9292backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 76c | 15.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Amanda Green be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?this page
- Will Brice Barnes be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?No won
- Will Nic Zateslo be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?No won
- Will Yen Bailey be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.