Earnings · resolved market
Will Weibo (WB) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7b0de4aedddc97e4ed32f5452df0fcf199ad3f4aa0628805a84cb1d77dc327a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,795
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,716
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,795 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcb5e…9d3ebacked Yes | 43c | 705.15$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +131.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…0456backed No | 40c | 403$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 47c | 379.08$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.1 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb5…af15backed Yes | 37c | 280.01$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +167.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed Yes | 67c | 263.77$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.14 | 64 | 100%64 W · 0 L | +25.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 82+0.29 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed No | 37c | 225.52$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 40c | 202.08$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.96 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked Yes | 51c | 200.14$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.53 | 134 | 32.8%44 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f77…08eabacked No | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…b9f9backed No | 52c | 184$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.5 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 48c | 145$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.05 | 760 | 37.6%286 W · 474 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked No | 42c | 136.67$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 47c | 128.42$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.22 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes | 44c | 121.36$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.96 | 262 | 50.4%132 W · 130 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 56c | 111.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 578 | 38.9%225 W · 353 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa68…ba5dbacked No | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x363b…c5a9backed No | 52c | 96.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 58c | 93.65$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.32 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2bf…95d3backed Yes | 54c | 80.83$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe123…2fc1backed No | 57c | 79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.81 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -5.8wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -60%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 58c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -11.1wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 49c | 48.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 179 | 35.2%63 W · 116 L | -14.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 53c | 48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc09b…38e2backed Yes | 61c | 47.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 58c | 46.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked Yes | 47c | 43.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce98…5614backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 48cpaid | +110.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…5506backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -8.7wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -31%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +123.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae2…34d9backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ce…4904backed Yes | 58c | 33.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f4b…6b9dbacked Yes | 55c | 32.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…5db6backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5a…c495backed No | 55c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 53c | 22.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 58c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -7.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 54c | 20.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ed…a8dabacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -30%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc31…3fe8backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 55c | 18.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.