Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e8d642f881f5add0c489cb34963fec52c88bf39684881dc71edef3889df4c68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,043
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,962
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,043 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 180 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 48c | 1,573$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.91 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 42c | 855.16$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.19 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 54c | 740.06$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.91 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 58c | 532.06$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.9 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 32c | 507.06$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.07 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 54c | 499.99$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.13 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 67c | 479.25$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.98 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 40c | 441.87$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.07 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 50c | 438.23$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.44 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 48c | 419.17$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 46c | 376.84$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.83 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 66c | 318.15$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.15 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 314$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 50c | 263.4$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.17 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 50c | 260.11$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.92 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 61c | 249.36$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 52c | 246.1$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.2 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 11c | 235.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 56c | 218.45$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.77 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked No | 36c | 216.41$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.81 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 52c | 212.75$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.05 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 48c | 204.25$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.08 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked Yes | 74c | 199.99$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.99 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 37c | 198.93$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.96 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 44c | 195.36$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.6 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 68c | 184.24$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.75 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 54c | 177.93$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.08 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 51c | 160.39$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.75 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 75c | 160$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 59c | 158.48$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.77 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 41c | 154.45$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.6 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed Yes | 52c | 150.09$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.05 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 62c | 150$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.53 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 76c | 149.24$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.97 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 70c | 144.36$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.44 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 33c | 129.01$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.56 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e477backed No | 43c | 128.35$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.16 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 38c | 118$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0d06backed No | 51c | 118$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.2 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 36c | 115.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 61c | 114.75$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 44c | 112.82$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 41c | 111$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.05 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 57c | 105.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…1c49backed Yes | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 42c | 103.44$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 40c | 100.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6c…e2d8backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.01 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x917c…6b38backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 46c | 99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.17 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 51c | 97.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 51c | 96.15$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84d…3307backed Yes | 50c | 92.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.1 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 40c | 89.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 48c | 84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 45c | 82.69$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.47 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 52c | 82.14$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 46c | 79.89$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.14 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 51c | 78.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 41c | 75.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 46c | 73.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2350…a351backed Yes | 48c | 73.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42c4…a460backed Yes | 54c | 70.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 35c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 58c | 69.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 50c | 66.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5af3…1534backed Yes | 68c | 66.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 41c | 66.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.12 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 52c | 65.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe466…7db5backed Yes | 50c | 64.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +5.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 45c | 63.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 61c | 63.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 31c | 61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.38 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 38c | 60.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 57c | 60.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 48c | 60.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.21 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ab…8e21backed No | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 51c | 59.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a5…9156backed Yes | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 27c | 56.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 36c | 56.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 63c | 55.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57a2…e032backed No | 42c | 54.68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 46c | 53.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 26c | 52.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 68c | 52.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb74b…0642backed Yes | 34c | 51.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 39c | 50.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 56c | 50.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…9e0cbacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 36c | 48.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…2e57backed No | 46c | 47.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…c79cbacked Yes | 66c | 45.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 24c | 44.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on July 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.