Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa44ed013f95e5b4f8d0316e7c4ff36672c10e97267e6c67386fdd9b0b569d247
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,201
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,201 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 50c | 1,520$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.81 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 16c | 1,007$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.91 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 66c | 833.8$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.89 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 37c | 820.74$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.74 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 20c | 788.53$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.04 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 760.93$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.74 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 65c | 586.57$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.06 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 53c | 497.98$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.4 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked Yes | 18c | 466.18$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.74 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 451.87$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.17 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 382.63$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.32 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 21c | 380.18$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.76 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 62c | 376.85$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.06 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 13c | 359.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 74c | 318.64$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.35 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 19c | 310.54$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.54 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 291.57$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.74 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 17c | 251.06$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.97 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 241.01$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.68 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed No | 46c | 228.55$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.72 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 50c | 227$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.76 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 217.82$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.19 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 213.43$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.66 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 212.18$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.57 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3669…e0f0backed Yes | 61c | 200.02$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.38 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 76c | 200$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.72 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef8…21e5backed Yes | 32c | 187.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 66c | 160$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.15 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329f…81b4backed Yes | 31c | 159.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.07 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 53c | 150.52$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.62 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 63c | 150$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.14 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 24c | 149.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 17c | 149.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.7 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 19c | 146.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.25 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0f…8033backed Yes | 69c | 144.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…6d71backed No | 79c | 138.84$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2837…fd84backed No | 77c | 138.23$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.4 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…2e57backed Yes | 37c | 136.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 78c | 136$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.07 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 79c | 134.37$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 20c | 126.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 38c | 118$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.16 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 29c | 114.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.85 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 56c | 101.66$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.58 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9256…e520backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 20c | 99.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.64 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 64c | 95.55$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.69 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe503…6ac9backed Yes | 76c | 93.04$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…e9f5backed Yes | 76c | 92.16$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…c79cbacked No | 54c | 91.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 56c | 91.7$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.05 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x917c…6b38backed No | 65c | 90$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked No | 65c | 90$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.12 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 33c | 88.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.01 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 85$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.68 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e477backed No | 65c | 84.25$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 52c | 81.08$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 80$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.32 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 55c | 78.77$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 53c | 76.28$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 45c | 75.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.44 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 40c | 75.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 27c | 73.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 77c | 71.28$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.89 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 50c | 67.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 52c | 67.07$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dd…a04ebacked Yes | 59c | 64.9$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a422backed Yes | 71c | 63.52$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 24c | 63.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.34 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 38c | 62.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.59 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c65…2e0dbacked Yes | 80c | 62.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 62$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 22c | 57.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 55.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 58c | 51.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…190dbacked Yes | 21c | 51.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee2b…a97abacked Yes | 39c | 51.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +4.3wins | +0.33per pick | 52cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b6…402ebacked Yes | 59c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62c8…08d4backed Yes | 52c | 49.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8095…b843backed Yes | 21c | 48.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 33c | 47.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 62c | 46.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 72 | 81.9%59 W · 13 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 30c | 46.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 58c | 46.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 28c | 45.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 158 | 29.7%47 W · 111 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46cc…3097backed No | 71c | 42.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3510…d8d3backed No | 71c | 42.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 39.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 38c | 39.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7247…ecb6backed Yes | 75c | 38.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…6f13backed Yes | 52c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45e6…8fcabacked No | 69c | 36.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 78c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ee…2d2ebacked Yes | 40c | 34.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 68c | 34.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ab…8e21backed No | 72c | 33.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.