Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73a54c942ebfd5932eb17b2865f51a9b3455294d6fa0dceb1dd64239afcd6a16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,102
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,941
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,102 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 1,159$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.44 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 582.27$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.82 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 30c | 327.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.66 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 27c | 316.62$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.41 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 312.42$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.66 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 260$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 72c | 240.31$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.76 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 72c | 204.31$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.71 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 33c | 174.96$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.57 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 10c | 163.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed No | 69c | 159.21$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.21 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 45c | 135.38$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.83 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 26c | 130$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 34c | 110.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 73c | 102$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 73c | 102$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f40…887cbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x498b…bdbabacked Yes | 28c | 90.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 28c | 90$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4338…f330backed Yes | 24c | 81.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 25c | 81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 80.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 63c | 79.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 31c | 75.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed Yes | 37c | 64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 33c | 51.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 32c | 50.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 27c | 50.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…3a8bbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 49.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47e8…94f5backed Yes | 35c | 48.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +47%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x02e9…9a18backed No | 64c | 47.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…ddeabacked Yes | 43c | 46.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 28c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 68c | 42.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 42.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3460…7f71backed No | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 63c | 40.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa539…214cbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x808c…0aa2backed Yes | 54c | 37.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 67c | 35.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 63c | 30.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 36c | 29.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1904…fd8abacked No | 71c | 19.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 66c | 16.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed No | 69c | 14.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -20.8wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on July 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.