Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfff13ab03f0c262859a1736c218361824961ee7909e92fd2aba49a9b1bae4b26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,128
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,128 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 3c | 999.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked Yes | 3c | 883.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 646.27$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.68 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 56c | 361.06$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.33 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 48c | 358.98$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.36 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3b…05aabacked Yes | 4c | 280.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 70c | 238.29$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.41 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 38c | 216.3$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.84 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 52c | 208.6$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.45 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 48c | 153.44$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.65 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 45c | 141.02$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 53c | 132.74$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.96 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 51c | 121.44$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.51 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 107.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e477backed No | 52c | 105.73$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.75 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 38c | 104.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45f3…216cbacked Yes | 48c | 104.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 52c | 86.32$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.02 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 71.01$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 49c | 65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 60c | 63.37$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 49c | 61.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 54c | 60.73$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked No | 52c | 59.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.54 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…5f93backed Yes | 49c | 59.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 57c | 59.24$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 23c | 57.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 60c | 57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 50c | 49.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…88d0backed No | 61c | 48.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -7.0wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 45c | 43.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 49c | 41.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 53c | 37.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 53c | 37.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 61c | 31.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed No | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 49c | 30.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 64c | 30.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 49c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 67c | 27.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc1…90cfbacked Yes | 48c | 26.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 62c | 26.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 53c | 25.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 61c | 22.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 51c | 21.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 60c | 21.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 51c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 69c | 17.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 60c | 16.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on July 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.