Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e46c0b8c5dd6b40eaf8c53685eccbd99b709c6ce7656a9fbfcd4ac43258c1b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,835
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,835 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 34c | 651.92$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.83 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 7c | 624.47$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 32c | 487.4$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.56 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 64c | 398.18$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.82 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 3c | 382.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 382$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.76 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 11c | 358.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 20c | 310.24$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.53 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 62c | 288.77$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.57 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 8c | 272.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 39c | 256.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.28 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked Yes | 48c | 255.91$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.66 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 38c | 238.31$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.19 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 23c | 176.95$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.39 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 67c | 167.17$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.49 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 160.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.01 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 143.57$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 12c | 120.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 14c | 114.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 65c | 113.9$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.78 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 39c | 111.36$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.84 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 47c | 107.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.22 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 107.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.78 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 51c | 106.71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.92 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 49c | 106.49$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.18 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc47…15d4backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 34c | 98.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 96$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.38 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…576dbacked Yes | 32c | 89.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.27 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 57c | 85.44$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 27c | 84.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 33c | 82.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.08 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 72.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.09 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 70$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 17c | 69.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 25c | 67.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.62 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 67.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…5f93backed Yes | 30c | 66.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.7 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 59c | 65.66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 63.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.37 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 35c | 61.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1165…f10cbacked Yes | 24c | 59.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 20c | 59.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 54c | 59.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 47c | 57.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 47c | 54.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 34c | 54.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 61c | 48.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 53c | 44.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 48c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 56c | 35.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 61c | 34.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked Yes | 74c | 34.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 37c | 34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…6f13backed Yes | 60c | 33.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 70c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a422backed No | 53c | 30.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 68c | 29.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 69c | 29.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 67c | 28.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 41c | 26.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 80c | 24.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 49c | 22.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 67c | 22.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 60c | 22.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 47c | 21.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 80c | 21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 79c | 20.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 61c | 19.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a89…de7dbacked Yes | 67c | 18.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 59c | 18.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 76c | 15.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 69c | 14.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…f865backed No | 77c | 14.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.