Movies · resolved market
Will "Ransom Canyon: Season 2" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeff565466fbac2796811f43cf43404c05402f494d0a633328584b054a6608d7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,366
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,366 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 8c | 9,016$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.77 | 95 | 6.3%6 W · 89 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -79%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44b0…0822backed Yes | 77c | 3,036$2,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.26 | 19 | 94.7%18 W · 1 L | +5.6wins | +0.30per pick | 65cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…99ebbacked No | 6c | 2,968$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.91 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No | 2c | 2,487$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 329 | 24%79 W · 250 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 2c | 2,465$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 3c | 1,904$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.99 | 119 | 24.4%29 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 14c | 934.49$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.18 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 890.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 10c | 877.41$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.68 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 2c | 813.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 15c | 799.41$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.88 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -90.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 3c | 722$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 3c | 527.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e9…5250backed Yes | 75c | 477.44$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.32 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4f…747cbacked Yes | 80c | 410.21$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.08 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +10.1wins | +0.42per pick | 37cpaid | +355.5%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 4c | 348.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 13c | 314$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.29 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 3c | 290$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 13c | 270.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed No | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 4cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 8c | 210$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -7.8wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 8c | 210$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb82…0318backed Yes | 73c | 206.58$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.58 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed No | 16c | 155.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda5…ee3abacked No | 16c | 122.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51da…a701backed Yes | 73c | 114.92$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 14c | 97.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb93f…9a79backed No | 21c | 87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe342…ac61backed Yes | 77c | 85.98$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11b5…8c02backed No | 27c | 68.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 20c | 64.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 17c | 63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed No | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aed…9d4ebacked Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x824a…01b4backed No | 24c | 41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed No | 32c | 40.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -5.0wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -50%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5705…4652backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -73%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x290a…0994backed Yes | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 75c | 18.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Ransom Canyon: Season 2" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?this page
- Will "I Will Find You: Limited Series" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "The Bombing of Pan Am 103: Limited Series" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.