Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc2180549d99af23e3705bb65b4c4a6835dd4aea7606073caaac10bad60e7c17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,985
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,985 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 8c | 4,953$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.6 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 2,333$1,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,034.15 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…cce2backed Yes | 5c | 1,071$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 9c | 1,051$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.08 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 29c | 985.57$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.37 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 969.34$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.09 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 42c | 801.79$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.8 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 62c | 721.41$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.71 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 57c | 679.96$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.52 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 76c | 541.77$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.09 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.95 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 39c | 472.32$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.02 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 441.84$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.3 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 79c | 424.35$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.65 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 33c | 399.2$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 15c | 353.64$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.76 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 77c | 328.25$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.82 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 58c | 315.38$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.59 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 7c | 311.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 17c | 267.77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.6 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 259$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.76 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 9c | 236.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 9c | 227.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42c4…a460backed Yes | 52c | 227.06$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.07 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 13c | 220.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 32c | 207.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.56 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 18c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 33c | 199.42$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 57c | 193.56$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.73 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 64c | 185.16$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.66 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 69c | 181.97$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.21 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26f7…9a17backed Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 29c | 162.28$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3460…7f71backed No | 62c | 162.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 62c | 160$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.6 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 35c | 154.95$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.94 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 17c | 150.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 65c | 149.99$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…6d71backed No | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 67c | 130.04$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.91 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 24c | 130$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 24c | 126.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 48c | 125$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.51 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 61c | 114.75$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 59c | 107.32$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…a592backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…cc2cbacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 68 | 94.1%64 W · 4 L | +12.7wins | +0.19per pick | 75cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 46c | 97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.62 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 78c | 91.02$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 48c | 90.22$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 89.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 45c | 88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 31c | 87.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 41c | 86.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd160…9837backed Yes | 36c | 84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 40c | 82.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 59c | 82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 73c | 81.64$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x375b…0ebbbacked Yes | 31c | 80.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked Yes | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf846…cb9fbacked No | 48c | 79.06$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.11 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 69c | 69.06$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 32c | 68.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 37c | 65.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 21c | 64.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a422backed Yes | 25c | 62.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 30c | 60.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked Yes | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 40c | 56.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 61c | 51.94$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 47c | 50.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5589…a3fabacked No | 60c | 49.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 56c | 48.73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2350…a351backed Yes | 31c | 47.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 51c | 46.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 48c | 46.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed No | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 43.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 46c | 42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 47c | 41.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 52c | 40.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 32c | 40.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes | 36c | 40.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02e9…9a18backed Yes | 56c | 39.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a2…e032backed Yes | 42c | 39.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 39.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…7a72backed No | 70c | 39.08$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 35c | 38.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb68…e6dcbacked Yes | 30c | 35.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 33c | 34.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 57c | 34.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.