Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc588c01c2dde404a949699f0872e36bff93a9cf6ab577c2f65837d1e2892d2e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,909
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,910
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,909 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 58c | 1,475$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.47 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 52c | 1,449$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.3 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 60c | 1,422$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.38 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 47c | 1,041$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 44c | 1,006$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.64 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 59c | 853.15$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.15 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 37c | 717.2$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.82 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 31c | 643.81$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.48 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…a592backed Yes | 72c | 593.23$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.4 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb15…9483backed Yes | 71c | 491.5$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 48c | 472.38$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.39 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 52c | 466.18$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.93 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…2e57backed Yes | 67c | 448.95$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.95 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 37c | 424.44$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.93 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 50c | 361.35$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.79 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 36c | 323.65$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.61 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 33c | 302.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.65 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked Yes | 35c | 296.55$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.2 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 53c | 272.8$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.45 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 35c | 251.41$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.76 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 59c | 237.27$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.63 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e1…ac51backed Yes | 61c | 218.71$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.26 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 62c | 215.05$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.91 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 65c | 213$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 44c | 212.39$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.66 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 40c | 177.53$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.84 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd41…392bbacked No | 56c | 169.34$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.83 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 50c | 152.84$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.06 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…0fbbbacked No | 40c | 152$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb31…3952backed Yes | 61c | 151.46$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.46 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 43c | 151.08$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.5 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed No | 40c | 145$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 65c | 144.9$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.13 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 35c | 141.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.13 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 135.53$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.1 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…1c49backed Yes | 68c | 132.79$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.79 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 46c | 130.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.77 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 29c | 130.21$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked No | 31c | 130$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 65c | 127.92$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.3 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 60c | 116.85$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.82 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 54c | 115.74$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.43 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 56c | 102.95$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.65 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 34c | 101.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 52c | 100.17$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.42 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…5da0backed No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2174…9b75backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.13 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d19…bb47backed No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 26c | 98.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 43c | 96.98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.28 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 50c | 92.11$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 59c | 90.78$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 60c | 83.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 47c | 74.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.37 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc90d…c9d2backed Yes | 59c | 72.73$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 34c | 71.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.88 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 59c | 70.68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 47c | 69.53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.84 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 28c | 69.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 52c | 68.91$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 68.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 22c | 67.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 65c | 64.39$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 46c | 63.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf301…b2a6backed Yes | 54c | 63$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 36c | 61.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.67 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 40c | 61.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 44c | 61.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 79c | 60.85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 26c | 60.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.67 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd9…9591backed No | 62c | 58.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 35c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 50c | 54.69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 44c | 51.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 36c | 50.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 41c | 50.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 43c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7072…75dcbacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 53c | 49.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 50c | 48.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 38c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 47.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…7a72backed No | 37c | 47.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 40c | 46.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 74c | 43.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08b4…624ebacked Yes | 74c | 41.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 73c | 39.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 67c | 37.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 51c | 37.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…7d26backed Yes | 38c | 36.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 53c | 35.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x581e…aed3backed Yes | 68c | 34.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 59c | 33.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 51c | 33.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.