Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x551eb2b9f7e8fd25287764d90281f11cba99bbcdffd482b7da27d28fe427d978
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,632
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,831
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,632 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2812…d8fdbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,423$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.56 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked No | 77c | 792.22$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.55 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 4c | 765.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 3c | 623.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8794…fa1bbacked Yes | 8c | 583.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…018bbacked Yes | 14c | 561.5$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 78c | 542.06$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.3 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 9c | 406.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 4c | 374.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 188 | 4.8%9 W · 179 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 4c | 364.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 65c | 324.99$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.86 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 76c | 308.02$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.14 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffc…e6ddbacked No | 54c | 299.99$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 5c | 250.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 12c | 170.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 8c | 162.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…2e56backed Yes | 21c | 160.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 53c | 160$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.8 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked Yes | 65c | 154.09$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 20c | 151.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 37c | 138$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.73 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 75c | 133.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 36c | 124$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 45c | 112.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 68c | 103.61$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 21c | 98.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 61c | 98.13$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 66c | 64.32$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a422backed No | 79c | 58$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 57c | 54.82$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 80c | 50.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 35c | 47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dd…a04ebacked Yes | 35c | 43.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…e9bfbacked Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 56c | 39.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 76c | 30.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…d4dabacked No | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 53 | 81.1%43 W · 10 L | +8.5wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 61c | 29.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 77c | 25.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 65c | 23.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 75c | 22.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 71c | 19.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88e4…e2afbacked Yes | 77c | 16.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 80c | 13.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.