Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x249b5455ff0d2424117983a6e0345e421dda6848d240f6932671b8415da67950
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,550
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,790
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,550 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed No | 47c | 1,003$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.49 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 40c | 686.21$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.36 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 62c | 556.2$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.36 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 33c | 500$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.29 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 56c | 499.99$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.1 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 69c | 437.68$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 44c | 396.4$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.22 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 65c | 383.3$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.37 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d0…cc5abacked Yes | 51c | 350.68$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.83 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 29c | 268.61$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.7 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 46c | 263.5$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.6 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 53c | 234$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.22 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5d…38eabacked Yes | 68c | 232.93$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.61 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 30c | 227$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.9 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 34c | 174$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.15 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57a2…e032backed No | 44c | 171.85$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.61 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 31c | 154.62$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.69 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 41c | 145.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…a042backed Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 52c | 136$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.72 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 48c | 133.4$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.37 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 49c | 131.78$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.32 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 32c | 127.76$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.94 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 33c | 120.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.99 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 44c | 120$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 40c | 119.86$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.28 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e34…224ebacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.59 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 35c | 93.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.51 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 71c | 91.79$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 51c | 87$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 33c | 85.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.36 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2057…0629backed Yes | 51c | 75.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 25c | 72.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.94 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb31…3952backed Yes | 70c | 71.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 37c | 69.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 32c | 69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.76 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15a1…5ef3backed Yes | 62c | 66.36$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 40c | 65.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.86 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 53c | 64.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 35c | 64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 34c | 61.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed Yes | 51c | 59.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 44c | 58.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 49c | 53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 35c | 50.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 55c | 49.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 27c | 47.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 35c | 43.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 76c | 42.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 58c | 42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 32c | 41.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 67c | 40.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…3cbebacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 51c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 52c | 35.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 33c | 32.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 72c | 31.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fb…7c05backed No | 34c | 31.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 74c | 31.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 34c | 30.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 28.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc1…90cfbacked Yes | 54c | 25.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…7d26backed Yes | 53c | 25.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…0ad4backed Yes | 67c | 20.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf7…b963backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e49…4e74backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0295…49d0backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd98…1211backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 77c | 19.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 54c | 18.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 65c | 16.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18c5…37a9backed Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C or below on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on July 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 36°C on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.