World Politics · resolved market
Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 40% and 60%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7112335c3a73bd706cfa39e5cdc01e47dd5966d2e26710335cc231bc89b0080
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,533
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,742
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,533 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe7b3…2b3abacked No | 67c | 2,268$1,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed Yes | 32c | 1,682$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.66 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…eee8backed Yes | 33c | 1,622$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.03 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed No | 38c | 1,538$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.14 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 1,537$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.73 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 1,483$1,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.56 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…0288backed Yes | 35c | 1,466$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.5 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +8.3wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 61c | 1,393$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.24 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 34c | 1,314$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.53 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 36c | 1,152$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.61 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…822abacked Yes | 64c | 1,005$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Yes | 63c | 1,000$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -28%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 37c | 992.99$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.02 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 962.75$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.88 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ac…7f76backed Yes | 67c | 934.99$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 49c | 915.84$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.5 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 893.72$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.99 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 832.31$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.2 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 27c | 716.94$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.04 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked No | 41c | 693.18$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.25 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 47c | 615.77$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.87 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf05e…209cbacked Yes | 53c | 499.99$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 48c | 404.54$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.05 | 107 | 34.6%37 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 47c | 371.77$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.4 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fee…ed5ebacked No | 77c | 311.69$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.26 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 304$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.15 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 36c | 263.73$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.44 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 260$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.66 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 59c | 235$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.79 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1682…26cabacked Yes | 63c | 229.83$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.84 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 33cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 60c | 220$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.82 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 34c | 210.46$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.69 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 44c | 210$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.23 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 58c | 207.08$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5195…44ebbacked Yes | 45c | 205$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.38 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 39c | 200$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.2 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 191$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 42c | 190$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.24 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 50c | 190$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.06 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 57c | 180$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…7a5abacked No | 66c | 170.25$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.41 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 66c | 167.32$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.76 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6406…bc04backed No | 65c | 159.11$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.57 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 52c | 158.23$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.43 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Yes | 36c | 156$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.85 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 36c | 140.59$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.93 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 41c | 139.09$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.81 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 52c | 137.06$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.59 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21a7…4b39backed Yes | 63c | 130$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 46c | 123.02$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.19 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed Yes | 65c | 122.48$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.14 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 46c | 122.39$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.95 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 46c | 122.19$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.81 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 65c | 120$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.78 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3958…830bbacked Yes | 35c | 115.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +315.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked No | 65c | 110$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 39c | 108.42$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 48c | 105.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 63c | 103.1$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 64c | 100.63$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.73 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 65c | 100.4$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.23 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…b4bbbacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -5.1wins | -0.24per pick | 62cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x321e…9292backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8c…757abacked No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae8…5a42backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…2ad3backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +130.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbe…072ebacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 57cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 66c | 99.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.1 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 37c | 97.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55b3…4dcbbacked Yes | 64c | 93.18$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.45 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 68c | 90$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 65c | 82$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 35c | 80.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 44c | 80$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.56 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 20c | 78.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc1f…a246backed Yes | 80c | 78.13$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3749…4094backed No | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 76c | 75.01$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…4b4fbacked Yes | 40c | 73.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +452.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe14…d255backed Yes | 72c | 72$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked Yes | 41c | 67.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 44c | 66.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.34 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 54c | 66.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 67c | 65.58$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.81 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 66c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 33c | 59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.41 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…35f9backed Yes | 75c | 55.23$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.57 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 40c | 52.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 64c | 51.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 47c | 50.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 66c | 50.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0787…0ca3backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +5.3wins | +0.31per pick | 45cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x18df…9c19backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7609…1443backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd38f…bf78backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 67c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 40% and 60%?this page
- Will Count Binface win the 2026 Clacton by-election by any margin?No won
- Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more?No won
- Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 20% and 40%?Yes won
- Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by less than 20%?No won
- Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Clacton by-election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.