World Politics · resolved market
Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 20% and 40%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a136aaf6933e2c25c7fa19039b1dd5e2d5c7f020a3aaa33be87b783d4796633
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,284
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1fee…ed5ebacked Yes | 78c | 11,597$9,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,551.71 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…6621backed Yes | 10c | 6,308$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,662.34 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +180.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 23c | 4,868$1,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,136.09 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 20c | 4,365$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$865.06 | 100 | 38%38 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 45c | 2,734$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,493.93 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked Yes | 10c | 1,577$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,416.68 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 1,508$1,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,158.81 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 24c | 1,245$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.47 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 43c | 1,057$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.4 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes | 15c | 1,000$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 62c | 894.12$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.84 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 13c | 884.35$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.37 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 7c | 863$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.45 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 840.26$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.89 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Yes | 21c | 800$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.8 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1308…45c6backed No | 48c | 732.79$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 77c | 640.1$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.41 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3958…830bbacked Yes | 10c | 624$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +315.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 18c | 503.5$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.5 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3d…684dbacked Yes | 8c | 474.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.93 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 3c | 463.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.87 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 8c | 368.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.99 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 11c | 350$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.25 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 16c | 306.27$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.32 | 132 | 25%33 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3577…9cedbacked Yes | 23c | 288.62$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 6c | 285.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.47 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf097…f868backed No | 9c | 278.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…4b4fbacked Yes | 9c | 265.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +452.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 9c | 263.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.8 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed Yes | 13c | 255.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.43 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 12c | 240$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.96 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 12c | 220$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.94 | 107 | 34.6%37 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…01cabacked Yes | 9c | 217.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,001.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5195…44ebbacked Yes | 10c | 205$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.66 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe234…304abacked Yes | 52c | 203$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.3 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 13c | 187.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 65c | 185.36$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.08 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 12c | 180.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55b3…4dcbbacked Yes | 15c | 180.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.27 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2a…b7b5backed Yes | 50c | 158.29$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.7 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Yes | 11c | 150$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.2 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0787…0ca3backed Yes | 52c | 140$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.17 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +5.3wins | +0.31per pick | 45cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 36c | 108.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 13c | 108$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.53 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…cb8dbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.7 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8c…757abacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.6 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.6 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…2ad3backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.2 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +130.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…4cd3backed Yes | 11c | 95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 13cpaid | +365.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked Yes | 11c | 89.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.57 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 78c | 82.32$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.53 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 18c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 29c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed3…27aabacked Yes | 67c | 25.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 62c | 20.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 142 | 5.6%8 W · 134 L | -27.2wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd823…12febacked No | 77c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 65cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 20% and 40%?this page
- Will Count Binface win the 2026 Clacton by-election by any margin?No won
- Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more?No won
- Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 40% and 60%?No won
- Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by less than 20%?No won
- Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Clacton by-election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.