World Politics · resolved market
Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by less than 20%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a8703cb03847d281f8b47ba71a7c481bde50efbf3ead76dcb28be5267970baf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,764
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,949
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,764 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked Yes | 6c | 1,882$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.5 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,566$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.73 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Yes | 10c | 1,321$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.43 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes | 11c | 904$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.34 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -66%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 2c | 850.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed Yes | 3c | 812.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 11c | 620$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 8c | 525.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 6c | 500$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 8c | 473.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a77…0b72backed Yes | 2c | 454.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 12c | 399.49$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 11c | 363.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f51…d389backed Yes | 4c | 343.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 12c | 220$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 214$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5195…44ebbacked Yes | 8c | 205$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 9c | 194.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 10c | 151.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 141 | 26.2%37 W · 104 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 13c | 110$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by less than 20%?this page
- Will Count Binface win the 2026 Clacton by-election by any margin?No won
- Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more?No won
- Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 20% and 40%?Yes won
- Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 40% and 60%?No won
- Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Clacton by-election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.