TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$127,449
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$120,231

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,449 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 197 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe7b3…2b3abacked Yes55c31,372$17,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,336.27757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+59.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed No57c11,887$6,819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,067.698640.7%35 W · 51 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes43c11,457$4,932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,931.6915932.7%52 W · 107 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+102.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bc1…8db4backed No40c11,042$4,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,638.661650%8 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+138.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc8b9…b836backed No59c10,004$5,888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,116.038237.8%31 W · 51 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2967…bd09backed No47c10,000$4,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,300742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+60.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2ac…7f76backed Yes28c9,237$2,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,555.16520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-67.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3089…92f6backed No57c5,496$3,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,384.33955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe899…0899backed No51c4,596$2,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,262.78887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick65cpaid+42.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes33c2,734$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904.6117330.1%52 W · 121 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No44c2,288$1,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,280.4912056.7%68 W · 52 L+11.9wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+26.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes49c2,007$975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$975.0454934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb97…eee8backed Yes46c1,722$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.681947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No41c1,501$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$885.5726632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes49c1,346$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.0714637%54 W · 92 L-0.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No56c1,208$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.3323551.9%122 W · 113 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7879…822abacked Yes56c1,160$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.152842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No67c1,091$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.8634354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No79c1,062$841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.558655.8%48 W · 38 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked Yes34c1,029$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.2910734.6%37 W · 70 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes31c1,024$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.0510038%38 W · 62 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3fc…484abacked Yes49c1,004$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.634926.5%13 W · 36 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-43.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb777…e4e0backed No80c766$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.2366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick78cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55b3…4dcbbacked No80c724.34$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.872759.3%16 W · 11 L+3.5wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+23.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes40c700.48$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.2413139.7%52 W · 79 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc954…6609backed Yes49c700$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-41.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No53c680.65$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.775223.1%12 W · 40 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-30.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes46c662.75$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.043531.4%11 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+57.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No58c593.68$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.4652850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x272c…7f07backed Yes34c586.17$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.632227.3%6 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-44.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c2a…b7b5backed No47c557.14$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.841566.7%10 W · 5 L+3.3wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No53c527.85$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.2536055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60cc…f23fbacked No48c511$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.7818214.8%27 W · 155 L+11.4wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+218.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbcac…6621backed Yes20c504.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.651145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick26cpaid+180.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd542…f187backed Yes44c500.73$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.59771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick46cpaid+110.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked No52c500$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.024540%18 W · 27 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf05e…209cbacked Yes21c500$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd296…084dbacked No43c499.99$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2853100%3 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+757.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x270b…e632backed Yes44c495.81$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes46c486.73$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.246330.2%140 W · 323 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes46c480.33$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.6288448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9578…f066backed No55c450$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.18657%49 W · 37 L+6.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+25.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes44c430.03$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.345036%18 W · 32 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x500a…c8e4backed Yes56c430$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d01…1645backed Yes34c422$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.2812029.2%35 W · 85 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+49.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13c7…18e8backed Yes30c401.86$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.4840%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a22…17a6backed Yes52c387.59$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005446.3%25 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7803…9e91backed No53c376$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.631566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f1…d87bbacked No73c373$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.32742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-33.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes29c326$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.2230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed No52c318.87$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.493148.4%15 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No62c315$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.2539952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9032…b5c3backed Yes46c300$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1382846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed Yes18c300$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5410151.5%52 W · 49 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No64c289$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.3928558.9%168 W · 117 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed Yes25c263.73$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.7315355.6%85 W · 68 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes40c258.97$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.2916254.3%88 W · 74 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No62c250$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.220065%130 W · 70 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x39b4…fc14backed No58c250$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1051729.4%5 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-42.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes43c240.6$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.4610243.1%44 W · 58 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x26cb…a394backed No58c230$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.61145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe947…7a45backed No68c229.04$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.5417044.1%75 W · 95 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x03e1…e180backed No53c228.32$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.743537.1%13 W · 22 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2213…492cbacked No75c227.37$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.371353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No58c227.3$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.3926355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0bc…1473backed No53c214.89$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1012100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+57.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58bb…a539backed Yes48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001020%2 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-39%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5195…44ebbacked Yes25c205$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.25714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick22cpaid+37.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x936a…7a5abacked No59c200.25$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.122965.5%19 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+22.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed Yes35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706944.9%31 W · 38 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed Yes61c200$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1223221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes57c200$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1142020%4 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65b8…037fbacked Yes48c199.06$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes46c199$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.5318445.7%84 W · 100 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f52…895cbacked Yes58c197.69$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11430%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No48c191$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.4535258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes20c190$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.46139.3%24 W · 37 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No57c188.73$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.518048.8%39 W · 41 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e38…a78bbacked No52c185.32$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36f0…b245backed No54c185$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.1250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked Yes45c178$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.666758.2%39 W · 28 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5d7…4952backed Yes57c175.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001233.3%4 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-54.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x74e6…99e8backed Yes45c167.88$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.761258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6442…cdc3backed Yes12c166$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.92450%2 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+217%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf107…b9babacked Yes35c165.61$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.243928.2%11 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No52c164.76$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.4415558.7%91 W · 64 L+0.8wins0.00per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbea0…e19dbacked No39c159.81$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.98450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf18c…18c1backed No53c150$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.54146.3%19 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe8c4…ea5cbacked No59c150$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.251181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.3wins+0.30per pick52cpaid+49.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No61c148.23$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.1810646.2%49 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed Yes49c142.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.6810845.4%49 W · 59 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Yes27c140$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.89656.3%54 W · 42 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x167a…91d5backed Yes45c130.72$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.826835.3%24 W · 44 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb924…0803backed Yes44c128$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.525054%27 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43fd…59d3backed Yes44c125$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553966.7%26 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick62cpaid-1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No52c120$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.118348.6%89 W · 94 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No58c114$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.8811839%46 W · 72 L-13.1wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-19.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No72c111.95$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.672755.6%15 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3749…4094backed Yes46c108.69$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick65cpaid-35.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed No48c106.54$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.46439.1%25 W · 39 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-17.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.