World Politics · resolved market
Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37c67f4fa2db4b42b87262e034ffbc6f8eeba5cc3f4f2dee222311ad199a6139
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $127,449
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $120,231
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,449 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 197 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe7b3…2b3abacked Yes | 55c | 31,372$17,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,336.27 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed No | 57c | 11,887$6,819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,067.69 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 43c | 11,457$4,932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,931.69 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…8db4backed No | 40c | 11,042$4,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,638.66 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +138.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed No | 59c | 10,004$5,888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,116.03 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…bd09backed No | 47c | 10,000$4,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,300 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ac…7f76backed Yes | 28c | 9,237$2,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,555.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3089…92f6backed No | 57c | 5,496$3,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,384.33 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe899…0899backed No | 51c | 4,596$2,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,262.78 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 65cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 33c | 2,734$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.61 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 44c | 2,288$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,280.49 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 49c | 2,007$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.04 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…eee8backed Yes | 46c | 1,722$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.68 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 41c | 1,501$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885.57 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 49c | 1,346$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.07 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 56c | 1,208$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.33 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…822abacked Yes | 56c | 1,160$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.15 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 1,091$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.86 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 79c | 1,062$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.55 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 34c | 1,029$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.29 | 107 | 34.6%37 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 31c | 1,024$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.05 | 100 | 38%38 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 49c | 1,004$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.63 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…e4e0backed No | 80c | 766$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 78cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b3…4dcbbacked No | 80c | 724.34$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.87 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 40c | 700.48$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.24 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…6609backed Yes | 49c | 700$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 53c | 680.65$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.77 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 46c | 662.75$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.04 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 593.68$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.46 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed Yes | 34c | 586.17$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.63 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2a…b7b5backed No | 47c | 557.14$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.84 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 527.85$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.25 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked No | 48c | 511$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.78 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…6621backed Yes | 20c | 504.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.65 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +180.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd542…f187backed Yes | 44c | 500.73$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.59 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +110.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked No | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.02 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf05e…209cbacked Yes | 21c | 500$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd296…084dbacked No | 43c | 499.99$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +757.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…e632backed Yes | 44c | 495.81$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 46c | 486.73$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.2 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 46c | 480.33$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.62 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed No | 55c | 450$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.1 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 44c | 430.03$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.34 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x500a…c8e4backed Yes | 56c | 430$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d01…1645backed Yes | 34c | 422$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.28 | 120 | 29.2%35 W · 85 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13c7…18e8backed Yes | 30c | 401.86$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…17a6backed Yes | 52c | 387.59$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7803…9e91backed No | 53c | 376$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.63 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…d87bbacked No | 73c | 373$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 29c | 326$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 52c | 318.87$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.49 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 315$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.25 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9032…b5c3backed Yes | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 289$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.39 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 25c | 263.73$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.73 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 40c | 258.97$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.29 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 62c | 250$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.2 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 58c | 250$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 43c | 240.6$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.46 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 58c | 230$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed No | 68c | 229.04$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.54 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed No | 53c | 228.32$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.74 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 75c | 227.37$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.37 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 58c | 227.3$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.39 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0bc…1473backed No | 53c | 214.89$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58bb…a539backed Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5195…44ebbacked Yes | 25c | 205$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…7a5abacked No | 59c | 200.25$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.12 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b8…037fbacked Yes | 48c | 199.06$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 46c | 199$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.53 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f52…895cbacked Yes | 58c | 197.69$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 48c | 191$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.45 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 20c | 190$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 57c | 188.73$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.51 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e38…a78bbacked No | 52c | 185.32$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f0…b245backed No | 54c | 185$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked Yes | 45c | 178$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.66 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d7…4952backed Yes | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed Yes | 45c | 167.88$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.76 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…cdc3backed Yes | 12c | 166$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +217%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf107…b9babacked Yes | 35c | 165.61$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.24 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 52c | 164.76$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.44 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbea0…e19dbacked No | 39c | 159.81$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 53c | 150$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…ea5cbacked No | 59c | 150$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.25 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.30per pick | 52cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 61c | 148.23$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.18 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 49c | 142.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.68 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Yes | 27c | 140$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed Yes | 45c | 130.72$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.82 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed Yes | 44c | 128$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.52 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed Yes | 44c | 125$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 52c | 120$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.1 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 58c | 114$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 72c | 111.95$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3749…4094backed Yes | 46c | 108.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 48c | 106.54$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.4 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more?this page
- Will Count Binface win the 2026 Clacton by-election by any margin?No won
- Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 20% and 40%?Yes won
- Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 40% and 60%?No won
- Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by less than 20%?No won
- Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Clacton by-election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.