Earnings · resolved market
Will Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb34ca50f1059d51f5cc6bb4bdee5357338f5c6f2c0c8977778a66bfdfa4308f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,424
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,520
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,424 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 51c | 2,283$1,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,168.56 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1767…e1ccbacked Yes | 41c | 822$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +146.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4d…1c7ebacked Yes | 52c | 473.4$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.07 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 51c | 398.39$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.7 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 50c | 302$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 142 | 33.8%48 W · 94 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked Yes | 50c | 300$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 58c | 152$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.16 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed Yes | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb21d…2f06backed No | 58c | 140$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 54c | 132$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.28 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe000…cbb1backed Yes | 48c | 125$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 141 | 71.6%101 W · 40 L | +22.4wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 54c | 105$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -7.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 52c | 100.2$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed Yes | 65c | 79.74$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 65 | 100%65 W · 0 L | +26.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 82+0.29 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked No | 49c | 76.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 263 | 50.2%132 W · 131 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 50c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 52c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -71%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3f…bc25backed Yes | 49c | 51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…5a86backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…cb8dbacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -8.7wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -31%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5844…5bd4backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -30%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93d9…ad95backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd83f…03b1backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5c…767bbacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.22per pick | 41cpaid | -41%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcc…160abacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3872…bb1dbacked Yes | 49c | 48.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 52c | 45.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 46c | 41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…743ebacked Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 54c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.