Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d59b9c09a0faf0a53e60223f869c1296d9d6d5410959899b61e46f00306e598
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,173
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,554
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,173 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 27c | 1,211$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.27 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7331…bc39backed Yes | 9c | 696$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.38 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed No | 73c | 564$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.58 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89f4…6950backed Yes | 23c | 444.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.31 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 25c | 436.07$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.75 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 27c | 434.16$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.22 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes | 27c | 431.83$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.59 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 428.26$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.81 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95e4…4e69backed No | 73c | 411.84$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.45 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 16c | 411.79$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.39 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…5f93backed Yes | 30c | 308.34$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.24 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 28c | 299.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed No | 76c | 265.68$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6361…3ec4backed No | 80c | 250.17$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.17 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…c40abacked Yes | 34c | 227.88$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.36 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 9c | 220.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 69c | 212.46$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.88 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 14c | 211.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed No | 69c | 211.88$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.29 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 200.26$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 41c | 198.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.69 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 31c | 191$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.02 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 19c | 189.08$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 15c | 183.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07ac…ab30backed Yes | 9c | 176.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 175.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 175$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.52 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 168.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 23c | 166.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 8c | 164.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 24c | 160.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 19c | 148$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 20c | 146.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 20c | 140.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…63e1backed Yes | 29c | 136.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 27c | 132$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5221…bd4dbacked Yes | 23c | 131.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 130$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 128.62$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.84 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 20c | 123$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 78c | 115.19$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 9c | 113.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 12c | 108.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 13c | 105.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc90d…c9d2backed Yes | 29c | 105$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 66c | 101.96$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x267d…ed00backed Yes | 20c | 101.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…57c7backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972a…aee7backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…3fb7backed Yes | 13c | 97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebb…9922backed Yes | 26c | 96.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 73c | 91.11$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 13c | 90.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 70c | 88.32$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 66c | 88$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…018bbacked No | 76c | 87.83$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3f…cd87backed Yes | 16c | 87.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 13c | 86.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…ea62backed No | 71c | 85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 80c | 82.79$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked No | 71c | 82.51$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 31c | 78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 70c | 74.92$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 76c | 71.78$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 31c | 70.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 68.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 68.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 79c | 68$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ae…133ebacked No | 79c | 66.19$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 76cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 25c | 66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed No | 68c | 62.36$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 25c | 61.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df3…c0d0backed Yes | 32c | 61.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 78c | 60.49$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 27c | 60.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f92…520fbacked Yes | 21c | 60.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc8…7b89backed No | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 57.51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc4…4d11backed Yes | 29c | 55.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 20c | 50.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 72c | 50.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8810…0e4dbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…c40fbacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 66c | 48.22$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e3…2868backed Yes | 43c | 46.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 74c | 44.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 32c | 43.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1681…bbbebacked No | 72c | 43.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.