Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x186a29796b6c31c2eb994db90ae58dc9163867526355ac970b189c9a718454e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,041
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,041 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 173 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 54c | 1,594$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.6 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 24c | 1,561$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,189.08 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 64c | 1,143$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.88 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 21c | 1,131$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.56 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…5668backed No | 20c | 1,100$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.99 | 96 | 17.7%17 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf28c…cdf8backed No | 80c | 999.98$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.96 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 789.14$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.06 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 21c | 757.88$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.87 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 19c | 698.04$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.85 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 68c | 698.02$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.63 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 36c | 634.91$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.43 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7331…bc39backed Yes | 15c | 622.5$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.2 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 18c | 537.38$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.12 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 536.87$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.57 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 52c | 509.56$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.74 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 14c | 437.34$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.35 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 420.71$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.19 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 55c | 412.76$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.08 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 29c | 400$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.23 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 24c | 391.45$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.04 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 68c | 346$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.42 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed No | 73c | 345.03$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.16 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 26c | 341.29$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.21 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed No | 73c | 340.55$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.28 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 340.13$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.62 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 333.27$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.47 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 17c | 327.58$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.63 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 22c | 323.73$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.5 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 19c | 318.02$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.95 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed Yes | 27c | 315.76$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.94 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 18c | 310$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.08 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes | 35c | 307.6$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.1 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 14c | 293.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 280.64$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.03 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 23c | 276.07$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.12 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa6…c6ccbacked Yes | 75c | 275.03$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.03 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 29c | 259.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.19 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa46e…fec5backed Yes | 77c | 259.52$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.52 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 32c | 259.04$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.53 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 20c | 256$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.02 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 32c | 247.94$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.18 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 243$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.71 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…018bbacked Yes | 46c | 241.74$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.37 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 40c | 229.24$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.42 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 36c | 219.16$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.59 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 21c | 215.61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.75 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6527…c01fbacked Yes | 77c | 207.62$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 203.16$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.08 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 203.08$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.25 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 177.65$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.71 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 9c | 172.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.57 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x271e…8eb9backed Yes | 37c | 164.77$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.81 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 19c | 160.47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.63 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 68c | 160$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.42 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a7…ecddbacked Yes | 16c | 156.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.31 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked Yes | 19c | 154.74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.43 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 75c | 150$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.81 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 16c | 148.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.6 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 22c | 144.56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.34 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 140.77$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.7 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 35c | 137.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.07 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 21c | 137$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.8 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 21c | 136.93$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.13 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 41c | 136.62$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.42 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 68c | 132.49$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.18 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 130$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.62 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 70c | 129.06$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.75 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed No | 67c | 122.29$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.13 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 75c | 120$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…63e1backed Yes | 42c | 119.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.29 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed Yes | 18c | 116.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.55 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked Yes | 23c | 115.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.31 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 10c | 106$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.13 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc90d…c9d2backed Yes | 26c | 105$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.7 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 51c | 104.89$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.89 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.24 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…aedfbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…932abacked Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.99 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fdd…2f82backed Yes | 40c | 99.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 26c | 98.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 73c | 97.72$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.66 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes | 17c | 93.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.07 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 21c | 91.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 64c | 87.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb97…603bbacked Yes | 18c | 87.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.71 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6b5dbacked Yes | 19c | 85.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.5 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 42c | 85.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.31 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a5…9156backed Yes | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 19c | 82.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.85 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c29…b975backed Yes | 12c | 81.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.75 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +91%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 60c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…f4fcbacked Yes | 15c | 78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76c2…a675backed Yes | 45c | 77.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.61 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 40cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 18c | 76.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.42 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 71$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x267d…ed00backed Yes | 35c | 70.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 70$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.48 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa953…da6dbacked No | 59c | 69.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.59 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.