TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$39,041
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,249

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,041 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 173 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd23f…94a1backed No54c1,594$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.62,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes24c1,561$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,189.081,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes64c1,143$727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.882,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes21c1,131$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$892.5625135.1%88 W · 163 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9807…5668backed No20c1,100$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.999617.7%17 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf28c…cdf8backed No80c999.98$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.962347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No54c789.14$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.064,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes21c757.88$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.8745130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes19c698.04$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.851,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No68c698.02$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.633,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No36c634.91$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.434,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7331…bc39backed Yes15c622.5$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.29425.5%24 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No18c537.38$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.1257044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes17c536.87$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.578,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No52c509.56$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.746,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed No14c437.34$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.353,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No78c420.71$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.193,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No55c412.76$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.081,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8370…e1efbacked Yes29c400$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.2326540.8%108 W · 157 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes24c391.45$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.041,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No68c346$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.423,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda58…6009backed No73c345.03$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.168560%51 W · 34 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-5.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes26c341.29$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.211,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed No73c340.55$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.2827246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes30c340.13$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.6210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No69c333.27$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.474,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes17c327.58$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.6316733.5%56 W · 111 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes22c323.73$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.53,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes19c318.02$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.9523129.4%68 W · 163 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b9e…0948backed Yes27c315.76$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.9410845.4%49 W · 59 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x302c…abcebacked Yes18c310$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.0816724.6%41 W · 126 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes35c307.6$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.110447.1%49 W · 55 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8383…cb59backed No14c293.8$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.849543.6%216 W · 279 L+31.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No69c280.64$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.032,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed No23c276.07$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.121,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fa6…c6ccbacked Yes75c275.03$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.031741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-41.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed Yes29c259.99$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.1934533%114 W · 231 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa46e…fec5backed Yes77c259.52$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.522040%8 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-18.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No32c259.04$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.5353925.6%138 W · 401 L-18.4wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-40.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes20c256$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.021,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes32c247.94$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.1865934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No60c243$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.715,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97c5…018bbacked Yes46c241.74$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.374665.2%30 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick65cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf46…1d91backed Yes40c229.24$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.427234.7%25 W · 47 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No36c219.16$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.5995852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes21c215.61$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.7556322.9%129 W · 434 L-32.9wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6527…c01fbacked Yes77c207.62$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.521675%12 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+24.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No79c203.16$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.083,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No77c203.08$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.254,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No44c177.65$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.7112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes9c172.66$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.5715717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x271e…8eb9backed Yes37c164.77$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.814658.7%27 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7adc…a971backed Yes19c160.47$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.6315040%60 W · 90 L+9.9wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes68c160$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.4256048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7a7…ecddbacked Yes16c156.75$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.314712.8%6 W · 41 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-25.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4941…a2bebacked Yes19c154.74$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.4312450.8%63 W · 61 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed No75c150$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.8181848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes16c148.11$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.64,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a56…be30backed Yes22c144.56$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.3446452.2%242 W · 222 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No67c140.77$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.74,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes35c137.12$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.072,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes21c137$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.827047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes21c136.93$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.1324141.9%101 W · 140 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No41c136.62$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.422,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06f2…8798backed No68c132.49$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.1816566.1%109 W · 56 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No74c130$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.623,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No70c129.06$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.752,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed No67c122.29$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.1319737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No75c120$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf743…63e1backed Yes42c119.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.292846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+24.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c48…1c17backed Yes18c116.52$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.5516552.7%87 W · 78 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5927…ba9abacked Yes23c115.44$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.3128762.4%179 W · 108 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb476…6eacbacked Yes10c106$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.136927.5%19 W · 50 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid+16.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc90d…c9d2backed Yes26c105$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.73145.2%14 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes51c104.89$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.8927335.9%98 W · 175 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes15c100$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.2416437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5999…aedfbacked Yes15c100$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7017644.3%78 W · 98 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes27c100$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7339427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd970…932abacked Yes17c99.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.998920.2%18 W · 71 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-17.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2fdd…2f82backed Yes40c99.05$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.05366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No26c98.2$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.794,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No73c97.72$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.661,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes17c93.98$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.077540%30 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No21c91.31$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.842,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No64c87.98$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.12,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb97…603bbacked Yes18c87.64$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.714864.6%31 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c82…6b5dbacked Yes19c85.82$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.53243.8%14 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No42c85.78$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.312,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9a5…9156backed Yes35c85.71$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.714434.1%15 W · 29 L+0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed Yes19c82.85$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.8587437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c29…b975backed Yes12c81.99$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.751442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick29cpaid+91%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed No60c80$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6edc…f4fcbacked Yes15c78$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.33432.4%11 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x76c2…a675backed Yes45c77.61$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.61812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.28per pick40cpaid-72.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes18c76.49$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.421,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No68c71$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.033,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x267d…ed00backed Yes35c70.71$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.253444.1%15 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No76c70$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.482,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa953…da6dbacked No59c69.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.592065%13 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.