TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x1fa6…c6cc

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
38
Categories scored
4
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 54 out of 100; worst Weather at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 30, 2026, EDT1741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-41.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$94
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+29.6%+$5.91
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+25%+$23.76
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT+100%+$16.11
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT+27.4%+$15.04
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$205Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+34.2%+$70.03
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on July 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+27%+$107.99
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on July 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.51
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+44.6%+$12.5
All 17 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+70.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+733.3%+$425.33
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 England?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
France vs. England: Team to Winbacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$82.88
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
France vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$23
France vs. Spain: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+98%+$19.6
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$10.42
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Argentina vs. Egypt end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.5
Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$12
All 10 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 27, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Ligalast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.