Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x905121f14fc32bad842eb2280e3bd50a3234560d48a743f3c05b6a2a93e76473
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,179
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,865
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,179 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 208 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 43c | 1,732$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.9 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 45c | 1,731$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$957.6 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 41c | 1,594$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.99 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 28c | 1,504$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.33 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 38c | 1,435$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.28 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 44c | 1,141$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.02 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 42c | 939.14$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.95 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 48c | 771.56$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.21 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 78c | 738.31$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.81 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 59c | 731.1$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.6 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf28c…cdf8backed Yes | 53c | 695.14$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.14 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 23c | 633$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.34 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 45c | 583.87$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.18 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 41c | 583.81$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.05 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 80c | 583.32$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.06 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 574$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.01 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 36c | 569.67$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.25 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 521$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed Yes | 78c | 496.5$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.78 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…8af6backed No | 57c | 491.07$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.44 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 47c | 484.87$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.17 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 63c | 474.84$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.87 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 8c | 461.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 17c | 458.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.04 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 70c | 450.65$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.16 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 59c | 405.93$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.58 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 15c | 394.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.74 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 38c | 390.87$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.28 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 60c | 370.47$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.33 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 347.23$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.82 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 339.56$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.45 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 50c | 338.02$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.45 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 329.05$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.68 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 67c | 329.03$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.93 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 47c | 322$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.58 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…7a54backed Yes | 50c | 319.99$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.64 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 54c | 308.22$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.62 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 63c | 300.03$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.43 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 263.03$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.18 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 72c | 250.21$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.27 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 57c | 247.65$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.11 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 45c | 236.89$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.07 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 10c | 227.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 72c | 226$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.13 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 54c | 225$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.07 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee2d…6968backed Yes | 45c | 217.78$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.78 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 54c | 203.47$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.12 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 52c | 203.26$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.76 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 191.66$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 57c | 183.53$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.21 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 62c | 171.47$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.85 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 17c | 168$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7071…91dfbacked Yes | 50c | 167.6$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.12 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -6.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…c148backed Yes | 45c | 163.96$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.4 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 75c | 157.85$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3dd…81b2backed Yes | 63c | 151.98$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.23 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed No | 53c | 146.83$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.53 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 28c | 140.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe445…8750backed Yes | 44c | 137.6$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.06 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -5.8wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xeec8…b2c9backed Yes | 78c | 134.06$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.06 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 26c | 126.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 38c | 126.08$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f0…dc7abacked Yes | 42c | 124.88$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa6…c6ccbacked Yes | 80c | 118.64$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 40c | 115.53$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.38 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 58c | 112.78$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.88 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3427…2ff7backed No | 55c | 108.61$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.74 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9efe…6357backed No | 22c | 108.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 42c | 108.4$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…9f83backed Yes | 76c | 105.44$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 84 | 76.2%64 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 30c | 103.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 45c | 102.87$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 74c | 99.85$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 47c | 97.65$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.07 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 45c | 96.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5844…5bd4backed No | 69c | 95.48$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.88 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 56c | 93.62$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.32 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 27c | 92.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked Yes | 46c | 92.32$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.85 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…6982backed No | 17c | 90.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 43c | 90.13$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.76 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 49c | 90.01$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.01 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d15…4a14backed Yes | 45c | 88.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.58 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 28c | 86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.83 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 75c | 85$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 39c | 82.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.17 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 51c | 81.82$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.87 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 55c | 81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.57 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…528cbacked Yes | 57c | 78.3$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 31c | 78.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 24c | 78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 52c | 75.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C or below on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.