TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$44,179
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$50,865

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,179 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 208 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No43c1,732$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.94,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes45c1,731$774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$957.625135.1%88 W · 163 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No41c1,594$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.992,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No28c1,504$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.334,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes38c1,435$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.281,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb902…06d8backed Yes44c1,141$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641.027159.2%42 W · 29 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+20.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes42c939.14$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.9510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x302c…abcebacked Yes48c771.56$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.2116724.6%41 W · 126 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes78c738.31$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.8127079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No59c731.1$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.62,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf28c…cdf8backed Yes53c695.14$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.142347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No23c633$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.344,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes45c583.87$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.1845130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No41c583.81$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.0561821.2%131 W · 487 L-34.2wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes80c583.32$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.0627047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No61c574$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.014,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No36c569.67$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.251,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No54c521$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.94,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda58…6009backed Yes78c496.5$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.788560%51 W · 34 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-5.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a3f…8af6backed No57c491.07$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.443246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xae22…8794backed No47c484.87$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.1746232.9%152 W · 310 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes63c474.84$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.8740337.2%150 W · 253 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8383…cb59backed No8c461.38$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1849543.6%216 W · 279 L+31.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked No17c458.85$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.041,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No70c450.65$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.162,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes59c405.93$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.5895933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No15c394.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.742,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No38c390.87$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.283,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No60c370.47$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.334,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No62c347.23$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.823,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No28c339.56$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.456,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes50c338.02$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.4539427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No60c329.05$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.685,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes67c329.03$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.9357044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No47c322$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.585,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x302b…7a54backed Yes50c319.99$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.646624.2%16 W · 50 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-32.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No54c308.22$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.623,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No63c300.03$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.431,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No59c263.03$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.184,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd115…4906backed Yes72c250.21$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.2713588.1%119 W · 16 L+26.4wins+0.20per pick69cpaid+31.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No57c247.65$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.111,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes45c236.89$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.072,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No10c227.6$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.354,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes72c226$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.131,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No54c225$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.073,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee2d…6968backed Yes45c217.78$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.786940.6%28 W · 41 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-29.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No54c203.47$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.1285049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No52c203.26$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.762,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No53c191.66$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.2712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No57c183.53$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.2166944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ae…2475backed No62c171.47$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.8557150.4%288 W · 283 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No17c168$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.561,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7071…91dfbacked Yes50c167.6$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.123132.3%10 W · 21 L-6.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-40%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x1de8…c148backed Yes45c163.96$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.41625%4 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes75c157.85$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.7825839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3dd…81b2backed Yes63c151.98$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.234431.8%14 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed No53c146.83$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.5319737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No28c140.06$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2495852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe445…8750backed Yes44c137.6$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.062321.7%5 W · 18 L-5.8wins-0.25per pick47cpaid-55.2%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xeec8…b2c9backed Yes78c134.06$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.064017.5%7 W · 33 L-5.0wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-62.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No26c126.65$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.533,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No38c126.08$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4971057.9%411 W · 299 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90f0…dc7abacked Yes42c124.88$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x445f…229fbacked No17c120$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.414034.3%48 W · 92 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fa6…c6ccbacked Yes80c118.64$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.761741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-41.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes40c115.53$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.388,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30d6…50c3backed Yes58c112.78$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.8829443.5%128 W · 166 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3427…2ff7backed No55c108.61$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.744247.6%20 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9efe…6357backed No22c108.58$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.292343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No42c108.4$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.092,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a86…9f83backed Yes76c105.44$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.448476.2%64 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04dc…d572backed No30c103.37$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1637465.2%244 W · 130 L+23.4wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No45c102.87$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4583459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5284…27f5backed No51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5118240.1%73 W · 109 L-16.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-21.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5181848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.51,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x515f…a606backed No20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2017553.1%93 W · 82 L-8.3wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.51,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed No26c99.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes74c99.85$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.9279947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No47c97.65$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.072,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a09…9b7fbacked No45c96.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6515850.6%80 W · 78 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5844…5bd4backed No69c95.48$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.884348.8%21 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No56c93.62$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.324,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No27c92.65$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.62,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb141…aa3bbacked Yes46c92.32$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.8512453.2%66 W · 58 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd04e…6982backed No17c90.51$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.391338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-32.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed Yes43c90.13$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.7634533%114 W · 231 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed Yes49c90.01$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.011,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d15…4a14backed Yes45c88.93$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.581650%8 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes28c86$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.832,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed Yes75c85$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.527246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes39c82.24$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.171,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No51c81.82$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8760054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No55c81$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.573,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e6f…528cbacked Yes57c78.3$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.34436.4%16 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes31c78.22$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.7665934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No24c78$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.951,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No52c75.8$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.381,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.