Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d3c9c74d6dc88f3209c85176ee0f88b918d11eb00b59edddbcac37af1860ca3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,089
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,269
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,089 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,587$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.36 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 18c | 2,099$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 25c | 1,699$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.42 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 7c | 1,475$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.81 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 26c | 1,009$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.17 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 924.48$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.19 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed Yes | 4c | 654.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 21c | 652.66$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.92 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 79c | 589.26$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.19 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 9c | 583.91$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.48 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes | 31c | 530.4$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.16 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…f218backed Yes | 18c | 497.76$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.46 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 22c | 497.69$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.76 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 468.97$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.77 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…5b42backed Yes | 9c | 432.7$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 7c | 432.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 16c | 406$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.62 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 79c | 398$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.58 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 13c | 358$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.87 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 10c | 354.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…7a54backed Yes | 27c | 328.55$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 320.82$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.39 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 80c | 318.22$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.19 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 18c | 318.06$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.08 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 16c | 314.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 9c | 308.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 8c | 286.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 13c | 279.56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 13c | 276.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2377…c69cbacked Yes | 12c | 264.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 19c | 251.89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.37 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 13c | 241$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 18c | 239$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 19c | 231.27$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…c148backed Yes | 18c | 222.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.83 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x415d…e154backed Yes | 12c | 218.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 14c | 217.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51b8…2202backed Yes | 6c | 212.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f0…dc7abacked Yes | 24c | 201.83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.81 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 16c | 195.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 19c | 195.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 188.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82d8…03eabacked Yes | 17c | 178.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 116 | 12.1%14 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a3…09b8backed Yes | 9c | 176.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 80c | 173.06$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07ac…ab30backed Yes | 16c | 167.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x463f…f78ebacked Yes | 7c | 163.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 79c | 161.3$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.66 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 32c | 158.69$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.19 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1839…a2a2backed Yes | 26c | 156.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -88%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa29c…572abacked Yes | 8c | 156$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 78c | 151.51$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 150.71$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 28c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 148$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 145.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 144.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed No | 73c | 142$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 12c | 139$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 7c | 138.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…83a4backed Yes | 11c | 135.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec8…b2c9backed Yes | 14c | 128.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 11c | 123.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked No | 73c | 120.51$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 75c | 120$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda18…c74ebacked Yes | 18c | 111.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 24c | 106.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 19c | 103.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 102$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d48…3fdfbacked No | 79c | 100.4$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2e…b55cbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 79c | 98.36$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 96.17$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 79c | 95.69$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ad…a859backed Yes | 15c | 91.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9efe…6357backed Yes | 27c | 90.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3b…05aabacked Yes | 22c | 89.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…528cbacked Yes | 13c | 88.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…4be3backed Yes | 21c | 86.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 75c | 86.18$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 85.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2749…e996backed Yes | 24c | 83.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 26c | 81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 28c | 78.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 77c | 77.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…6b76backed No | 77c | 75.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 78c | 75.79$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 27c | 75.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 70c | 72.62$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes | 27c | 70.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 74c | 68.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 77c | 66.15$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd04…9b27backed No | 77c | 64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…5123backed Yes | 19c | 59.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa6…c6ccbacked Yes | 34c | 59.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C or below on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.