TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$44,089
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$42,269

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,089 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes5c2,587$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.361,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes18c2,099$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3861,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes25c1,699$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.4225135.1%88 W · 163 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed Yes7c1,475$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8134533%114 W · 231 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes26c1,009$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.1745130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes15c924.48$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.1910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf225…42e0backed Yes4c654.45$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9111947.1%56 W · 63 L+8.2wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes21c652.66$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.921,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No79c589.26$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.191,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes9c583.91$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.481,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes31c530.4$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.1615570.3%109 W · 46 L+23.6wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+16.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xb45a…f218backed Yes18c497.76$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.463525.7%9 W · 26 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-25.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes22c497.69$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.7623129.4%68 W · 163 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No78c468.97$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.773,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe241…5b42backed Yes9c432.7$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.948756.3%49 W · 38 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26b1…cc81backed Yes7c432.11$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2523429.1%68 W · 166 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes16c406$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.6295933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No79c398$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.582,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6297…517ebacked Yes13c358$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.871,64327.8%456 W · 1,187 L+117.6wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+33%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes10c354.29$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.652,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x302b…7a54backed Yes27c328.55$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896624.2%16 W · 50 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-32.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No79c320.82$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.394,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No80c318.22$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.193,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x874b…4af0backed Yes18c318.06$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.089238%35 W · 57 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-15%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes16c314.45$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.1785330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed Yes9c308.85$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0127246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf421…efcebacked Yes8c286.08$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3142820.1%86 W · 342 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes13c279.56$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.567633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1201…005bbacked Yes13c276.09$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.351679.6%16 W · 151 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-32.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2377…c69cbacked Yes12c264.01$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.435317%9 W · 44 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-43.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7adc…a971backed Yes19c251.89$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3715040%60 W · 90 L+9.9wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes13c241$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.151,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes18c239$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7616733.5%56 W · 111 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes19c231.27$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.451,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1de8…c148backed Yes18c222.65$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.831625%4 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x415d…e154backed Yes12c218.74$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.82633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes14c217.46$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6679947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51b8…2202backed Yes6c212.8$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.782846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x90f0…dc7abacked Yes24c201.83$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.812231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes16c195.68$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes19c195.02$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3311927.7%33 W · 86 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes10c188.04$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.697,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82d8…03eabacked Yes17c178.1$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1211612.1%14 W · 102 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-31.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2a3…09b8backed Yes9c176.12$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No80c173.06$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.22,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x07ac…ab30backed Yes16c167.64$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.426719.4%13 W · 54 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x463f…f78ebacked Yes7c163.07$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.44630.4%14 W · 32 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69b3…14f8backed No79c161.3$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.6612466.1%82 W · 42 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes32c158.69$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.191,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1839…a2a2backed Yes26c156.97$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4205%1 W · 19 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick17cpaid-88%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa29c…572abacked Yes8c156$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.791250%6 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+66.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No78c151.51$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.811,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No76c150.71$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.644,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed No80c150$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3063255.7%352 W · 280 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed Yes28c150$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2560550.7%307 W · 298 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No75c148$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.93,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes11c145.25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.036,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes17c144.05$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.978,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed No73c142$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.819737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed Yes12c139$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6854853.1%291 W · 257 L-28.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes7c138.65$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.123,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0018…83a4backed Yes11c135.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152317.4%4 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-45.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeec8…b2c9backed Yes14c128.63$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184017.5%7 W · 33 L-5.0wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-62.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes11c123.38$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2261821.2%131 W · 487 L-34.2wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaff9…8e3cbacked No73c120.51$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.987862.8%49 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc50c…8d41backed No75c120$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.642366.4%281 W · 142 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c48…1c17backed Yes25c120$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.416552.7%87 W · 78 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda18…c74ebacked Yes18c111.37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.71185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick13cpaid-70.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes24c106.61$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.851,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes19c103.7$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0865934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes15c102$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.39,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d48…3fdfbacked No79c100.4$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.181675%12 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+45.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2c2e…b55cbacked Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1015717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2127335.9%98 W · 175 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No79c98.36$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6171057.9%411 W · 299 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No70c96.17$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.689,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04dc…d572backed No79c95.69$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.1137465.2%244 W · 130 L+23.4wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe8ad…a859backed Yes15c91.33$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.52657.7%15 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+18%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9efe…6357backed Yes27c90.92$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.752343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e3b…05aabacked Yes22c89.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.654734%16 W · 31 L+4.4wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e6f…528cbacked Yes13c88.08$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.24436.4%16 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e6…4be3backed Yes21c86.56$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.764228.6%12 W · 30 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-27.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No75c86.18$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.312,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes18c85.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x2749…e996backed Yes24c83.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205225%13 W · 39 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-35.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes26c81$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.432,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes20c80$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.115630.8%48 W · 108 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed Yes28c78.48$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.971,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No77c77.5$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.962,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5c2…6b76backed No77c75.99$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.488068.8%55 W · 25 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick72cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No78c75.79$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.821,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes27c75.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2812238.5%47 W · 75 L-10.6wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-21.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No70c72.62$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.571,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes27c70.14$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.187540%30 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No74c68.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.924,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9009…1621backed No77c66.15$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9419663.3%124 W · 72 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd04…9b27backed No77c64$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.722133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-47.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd03b…5123backed Yes19c59.83$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.51030%3 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fa6…c6ccbacked Yes34c59.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-41.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.