Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfff1a9c95a0e1077f09c23cdfc97652de6e52b58a3bcc3dec3007853feaa901
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,593
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,426
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,593 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 144 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe547…271dbacked Yes | 0c | 15,200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…11cdbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.31per pick | 53cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 27c | 1,350$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.93 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 1,276$943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.97 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 74c | 1,038$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.23 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 24c | 967.66$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.55 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 26c | 799.98$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 17c | 746.01$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.96 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf28c…cdf8backed Yes | 27c | 743.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 733.83$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.87 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 718.48$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.58 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 74c | 486.34$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.03 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 476$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.39 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 79c | 459.14$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.09 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 32c | 422.66$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.69 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd881…40cdbacked No | 67c | 361.73$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.37 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 361.25$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.86 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 77c | 358.66$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.84 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 356$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.22 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x579d…247cbacked Yes | 23c | 334.18$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.2 | 77 | 29.9%23 W · 54 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 326.84$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.05 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 308.22$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.52 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…7a54backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 28c | 285.84$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.92 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 25c | 281.71$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.61 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 276.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.81 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 30c | 273.16$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.06 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 72c | 263.06$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.6 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 24c | 256.61$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.9 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 23c | 253$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.81 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 8c | 229.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 21c | 219.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 16c | 213.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 76c | 212.44$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 203.26$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 200.7$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.97 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 20c | 199.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.83 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3dd…81b2backed Yes | 17c | 199.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…932abacked Yes | 17c | 194.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 188.89$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.73 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 183.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfd04…9b27backed Yes | 26c | 176$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.17 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 73c | 173.31$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.56 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90f0…dc7abacked Yes | 26c | 166.23$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.17 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 28c | 165.7$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 24c | 161.87$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 24c | 150.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.31 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 27c | 150.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.46 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 25c | 145.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1839…a2a2backed Yes | 20c | 138$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -88%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 137.37$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 132.73$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed No | 72c | 130.81$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 20c | 125.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 71c | 125.79$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 74c | 122.08$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x475f…17bcbacked Yes | 33c | 120$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 28c | 120$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf409…f6cfbacked Yes | 29c | 118.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…c148backed Yes | 25c | 117.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 27c | 117.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 21c | 114.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 114.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 110.08$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 77c | 107.82$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 35c | 101.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 23c | 95.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 74c | 85.98$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 76c | 84.62$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 76c | 82.63$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 32c | 82.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 19c | 81.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…144dbacked Yes | 24c | 81.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -19.6wins | -0.33per pick | 59cpaid | -61%equal weight | 24-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…f4fcbacked Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 73c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeec8…b2c9backed Yes | 23c | 79.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 77c | 79.16$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…6b76backed No | 77c | 76.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5b…bb98backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 76c | 73.19$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 34c | 72.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 66c | 67.42$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 22c | 66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 75c | 63.79$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…f218backed Yes | 25c | 63.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ac…a769backed Yes | 30c | 60.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e27…d5babacked Yes | 18c | 59.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked No | 80c | 57.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 74c | 56.23$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 29c | 56.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 73c | 55.6$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 19c | 55.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3727…85d4backed Yes | 20c | 53.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 76c | 52.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C or below on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.