TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$54,593
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$48,426

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,593 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 144 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe547…271dbacked Yes0c15,200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.22714.8%4 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-45.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e50…11cdbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101384.6%11 W · 2 L+4.1wins+0.31per pick53cpaid+48.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes27c1,350$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.9325135.1%88 W · 163 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No74c1,276$943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.974,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No74c1,038$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.232,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes24c967.66$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.551,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes26c799.98$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21039427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes17c746.01$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.961,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf28c…cdf8backed Yes27c743.44$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes25c733.83$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.8710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No76c718.48$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.584,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No74c486.34$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.031,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No77c476$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.394,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No79c459.14$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.093,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes32c422.66$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.6961821.2%131 W · 487 L-34.2wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd881…40cdbacked No67c361.73$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.377251.4%37 W · 35 L-6.6wins-0.09per pick60cpaid-12.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No72c361.25$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.864,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No77c358.66$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.8497152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No76c356$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.225,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x579d…247cbacked Yes23c334.18$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.27729.9%23 W · 54 L+0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid+18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes34c326.84$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.058,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No75c308.22$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.523,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x302b…7a54backed Yes15c300$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456624.2%16 W · 50 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-32.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes28c285.84$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.9245238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes25c281.71$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.6118041.1%74 W · 106 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes21c276.98$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.813,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes30c273.16$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.062,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No72c263.06$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.61,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes24c256.61$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.927047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes23c253$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8163143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…1d91backed Yes8c229.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.97234.7%25 W · 47 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes21c219.97$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.991,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes16c213.63$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.482,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No76c212.44$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.992,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No75c203.26$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.32,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No73c200.7$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.973,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes20c199.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8357044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb3dd…81b2backed Yes17c199.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344431.8%14 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd970…932abacked Yes17c194.48$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.018920.2%18 W · 71 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-17.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No72c188.89$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.736,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes20c183.62$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xfd04…9b27backed Yes26c176$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.172133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-47.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No73c173.31$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.564,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90f0…dc7abacked Yes26c166.23$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.172231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7adc…a971backed Yes28c165.7$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0615040%60 W · 90 L+9.9wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes24c161.87$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.631,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes24c150.05$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.311,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xae22…8794backed Yes27c150.01$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4646232.9%152 W · 310 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x874b…4af0backed Yes25c145.4$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.019238%35 W · 57 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-15%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1839…a2a2backed Yes20c138$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.48205%1 W · 19 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick17cpaid-88%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No73c137.37$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.8212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No71c132.73$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.054,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5cf…39d5backed No72c130.81$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.6323129.4%68 W · 163 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ec3…a081backed Yes20c125.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8917524.6%43 W · 132 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No71c125.79$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.322,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No74c122.08$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.762,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x475f…17bcbacked Yes33c120$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes28c120$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.695933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf409…f6cfbacked Yes29c118.86$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1de8…c148backed Yes25c117.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.551625%4 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes27c117.53$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2416437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x302c…abcebacked Yes21c114.71$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2416724.6%41 W · 126 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes26c114.24$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.87,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No78c110.08$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.982,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed No77c107.82$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.722,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes35c101.48$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1015717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3227248.9%133 W · 139 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes23c95.81$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.023,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No74c85.98$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.622,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No76c84.62$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9560054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No76c82.63$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.032,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes32c82.56$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3365934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes19c81.57$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.516733.5%56 W · 111 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d62…144dbacked Yes24c81.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.566026.7%16 W · 44 L-19.6wins-0.33per pick59cpaid-61%equal weight24-0.23 edge/pick
0x6edc…f4fcbacked Yes19c80$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.23432.4%11 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x04dc…d572backed No73c80$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2437465.2%244 W · 130 L+23.4wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeec8…b2c9backed Yes23c79.71$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184017.5%7 W · 33 L-5.0wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-62.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No77c79.16$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.341,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5c2…6b76backed No77c76.99$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.728068.8%55 W · 25 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick72cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a5b…bb98backed Yes26c76.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-36.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No76c73.19$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.322,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes34c72.42$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.625,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No66c67.42$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.921,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes22c66$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.733,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No75c63.79$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.671,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb45a…f218backed Yes25c63.32$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.543525.7%9 W · 26 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-25.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1ac…a769backed Yes30c60.4$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.931741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes17c60$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.37540%30 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e27…d5babacked Yes18c59.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.83135.5%11 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaebe…2c1dbacked No80c57.99$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.69047.8%43 W · 47 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc50c…8d41backed No74c56.23$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.842366.4%281 W · 142 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes29c56.18$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2985330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No73c55.6$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.022,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes19c55.07$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1970148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3727…85d4backed Yes20c53.86$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.52837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-32.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No76c52.98$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7698565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed Yes27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.560550.7%307 W · 298 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2065043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.