Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b2b56af484bb68a055a548f65d874e6a71f2f6c5c6d12cf2c4cd05f94bb86fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,337
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,997
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,337 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 26c | 1,559$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.4 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 68c | 1,035$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.06 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 14c | 965.87$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.57 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 18c | 625.93$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.47 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 598$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.12 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 593$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.49 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 19c | 488.79$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 21c | 437.83$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 34c | 412.19$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.85 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 35c | 411.89$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.1 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c02…b65fbacked Yes | 24c | 409.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 35c | 392$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.24 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 80c | 388.96$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.28 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 378$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.27 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 9c | 369.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 21c | 312.33$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.87 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed No | 55c | 307.37$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.07 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd48…1e93backed Yes | 43c | 303.71$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…f981backed Yes | 22c | 299.91$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.41 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 279.56$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.64 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…bb75backed Yes | 36c | 278.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.69 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 34c | 261.02$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.44 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 75c | 252.96$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.9 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 59c | 250.35$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.69 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 249.71$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.2 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31a1…1227backed Yes | 45c | 223.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa6…c6ccbacked Yes | 5c | 211.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 190.17$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 76c | 172.53$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.03 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 77c | 171$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bd…eab2backed Yes | 16c | 169.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 24c | 162.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 21c | 160.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…8deabacked No | 63c | 157.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.78 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfeb…314cbacked Yes | 30c | 156.91$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 69c | 138.32$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.53 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa769…843ebacked Yes | 43c | 138.28$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 12c | 133$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 59c | 124.84$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.74 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked No | 78c | 120$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 14c | 120$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 80c | 117.08$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 55c | 116$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 23c | 114.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x920f…10d5backed Yes | 46c | 109.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 108$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.72 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 74c | 100.58$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.21 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5673…32babacked Yes | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 71c | 99.75$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 95.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.06 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 76c | 90.85$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1d…98d0backed Yes | 37c | 82.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 77c | 82.41$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 57c | 79.07$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.65 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 77c | 78.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17cc…5011backed Yes | 38c | 78.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 61c | 73.52$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 26c | 70.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 61c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed Yes | 20c | 69.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 30c | 68.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d39…e6f6backed No | 75c | 66.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 74c | 61.36$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x965b…e530backed No | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 57 | 70.2%40 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f56…2adcbacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 20c | 59.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 61c | 55.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…a228backed No | 71c | 55.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 58c | 55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d98…261ebacked No | 75c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…1b4fbacked Yes | 38c | 52.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 57c | 52.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3df…2d82backed Yes | 39c | 51.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…018bbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6b…268abacked No | 64c | 39.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x810f…1a1ebacked Yes | 26c | 38.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 68c | 36.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 36.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 34.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a7…73e0backed Yes | 31c | 34.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 77c | 32.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…8fa9backed Yes | 38c | 31.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 76c | 31.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x02cd…b342backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 62c | 29.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed No | 74c | 28.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 59c | 27.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd358…cfbdbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.